Mo

In what appear to be close elections, it seems to come down to who's got the momentum going into that Tuesday. Could be as much an illusion as everything else, but it gives us something to talk about. Early last week I suggested the polls would go against Obama last weekend, but if by this weekend they were bouncing back, he'd have a shot at carrying Indiana and more confidence in North Carolina.

I hadn't figured on the Wright controversy which extended into mid-week, but the polls and other info suggest that Obama indeed has some momentum this weekend, and may actually have the mo going into Tuesday. The most important poll might be the CBS/New York Times survey that found that a majority are unaffected by the Wright mess, half think TV overdid it, and 60% approve of how Obama handled it. Plus "an overwhelming majority of voters said candidates calling for the suspension of the federal gasoline tax this summer were acting to help themselves politically, rather than to help ordinary Americans." This has been Hillary's main issue in I and NC. Obama's overall margin over Clinton actually increased 4 points, to 50%-38%. This survey was taken this past weekend, May 1-3.

On the macro level, all during this week when cable babble was fixated on Wright, the slow march of super-delegates and powerful endorsements were going much more to Obama than Clinton. Including those who used to be for Clinton. On the micro, Obama has found his themes and his methods of campaigning in Indiana. I remember his "closing argument" two minute ad for Ohio, and I wasn't very impressed. But his two-minute ad for Indiana and North Carolina is a gem.

I spent a few days this weekend in Ashland and Medford, Oregon (that state's primary is coming up), wearing my Obama cap, which got lots of smiles and some conversation. Several people were very troubled by what the Clinton campaign revealed to them about the Clintons, and they were worried that it's damaging the Democrats' chances in November. If that response is widespread, beyond Oregon--and it might be--then there may be sentiment that affects voting at last to end this thing sooner rather than later.

It seems that Hillary's "obliterate Iran" comment has been remembered and remains an issue (it came up in Obama's Meet the Press interview Sunday), and Frank Rich at least has pushed back on the racism involved in the media's attention to Rev. Wright while ignoring the comments of white right wing preachers supporting McCain, particularly Hagee. As an adjunct to Rich's comments, there's these quotations from Hagee's book which doesn't say Goddamn America--it says God has already damned America.

For what they're worth, the state polls in Indiana and North Carolina are still all over the place, though most have Obama ahead in North Carolina and competitive (Zogby even has him ahead) in Indiana. And of course, he won Guam!

Meanwhile, if you're an Obama and Star Wars fan, have some fun with this on YouTube.