Grim and Grimmer (with Updates)

Clinton's assassination comment got a lot of play on cable news; Keith O. spent almost the entire Countdown on it, plus a special comment. I'd rather it didn't get any mention--it isn't something you want in the air--but it's taken on a life of its own. I was surprised but impressed by the number of people--like historian Douglas Brinkley--as well as bloggers, who said that this is a disqualifier, and indeed may have ended not only her presidential bid but unless she begs for forgiveness in very explicit terms, ended her political career.

She said it was an historical comment, but that only makes it more bizarre. Others have pointed out that there are many better examples of the race extended into June and beyond that don't involve a candidate being killed. But what I haven't seen anyone note is that it isn't even accurate in terms of the 1968 Democratic nomination. By winning California, Bobby Kennedy had successfully become the candidate with the most primary wins, and he defeated Sen. Eugene McCarthy. But he wasn't the nominee--not even the presumptive nominee. The whole system was different then. Primaries didn't yet decide the candidate. RFK was still facing a summer of fighting for the nomination against the sitting Vice President, Hubert Humphrey (who by the way, didn't run in the primaries, so Clinton's argument for staying in the race falls apart right there.) The nomination was going to be decided at the convention--just as it had been in 1960, when JFK had won the most primaries, but was facing a lot of opposition.

But back then, campaigns were shorter. They didn't really begin until Labor Day. The nominee wasn't the nominee until the convention said so. It's very different now, and McCain is already leading a Republican Party that will not offer another candidate to oppose him at their convention. The harm that Clinton is doing is obvious from just this week in Florida, when Obama tried to take advantage of McCain's lobbyist problem, but Clinton's big mouth took attention away.

What this probably will end is any speculation that Hillary will be on the ticket. Despite the latest threat from a rabid Hillaryite. (Like the Obama fundraising operation is going to be scared by the in-debt Hillary fundraiser threatening to hold back funds.)

Ambinder rates the vp choices this way:

1. Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) -- Obama really likes her; that's very important.
2. The Virginia boys: Kaine and Webb
3. Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH) -- the Clinton stand in.
4. Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)
5. Sen. Hillary Clinton -- there's a fine balance between subtle pressure and overt hectoring
Wild card: Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE)

This is the best list I've seen so far, except for 3. and 5. Hillary is out, and I don't have the slightest idea why anybody thinks Obama is going to choose a buffoon like Ted Strickland. I still see him standing behind Hillary nodding as she cries, "Shame on you, Barack Obama!"

UPDATE: The New York Times describes the political firestorm set off by Clinton's RFK remark. In part:

Bill Burton, a spokesman for the Obama campaign, which has refrained from engaging Mrs. Clinton in recent days, said her statement “was unfortunate and has no place in this campaign.”

Privately, aides to Mr. Obama were furious about the remark.

Concerns about Mr. Obama’s safety led the Secret Service to give him protection last May, before it was afforded to any other presidential candidate, although Mrs. Clinton had protection, too, in her capacity as a former first lady. Mr. Obama’s wife, Michelle, voiced concerns about his safety before he was elected to the Senate, and some black voters have even said such fears weighed on their decision of whether to vote for him.

It was against that backdrop that Mrs. Clinton’s mentioning the Kennedy assassination in the same breath as her own political fate struck some as going too far. Representative James E. Clyburn of South Carolina, an uncommitted superdelegate, said through a spokeswoman that the comments were “beyond the pale.”

Update 2: Here's the transcript of Keith's Special Comment. Here's a Kos diary that collects some of the other comment on Hillary's RFK statement, including an excerpt from a piece by Libby Copeland in the Washington Post: "There are taboos in presidential politics, and this is one of the biggest. To raise the specter of a rival's assassination, even unintentionally, is to make a truly terrible thing real. It sounds like one might be waiting for a terrible thing to happen, even if one isn't. It sounds almost like wishful thinking...

The fear of a president or a presidential candidate being shot or assassinated is horrifying precisely because recent history teaches us that it can happen. We don't need anybody to remind us, and we certainly don't need anybody to remind whatever suggestible wackos might be lurking in the shadows.
In the context of Obama, Clinton's words broke a double taboo, because since the beginning of his candidacy, some of Obama's supporters have feared that his race made him more of a target than other presidential hopefuls. Obama was placed under Secret Service protection early, a full year ago. To be unaware that one's words tap into a monumental fear that exists in a portion of the electorate -- a fear that Obama's race could get him killed -- is an unusual mistake for a serious and highly disciplined presidential candidate.
It's surprising, too, because something very similar just happened last week, when Mike Huckabee made a joke at an NRA convention about somebody aiming a gun at Obama. He later apologized and called his remarks "offensive." He also could have called them "instructive" for any politician paying attention."

Another diary at Kos points out the fear, especially in the black community, that someone will try to kill Obama, the death threats his campaign receives, and despite Secret Service protect, the courage displayed when Obama campaigns so openly.

Speaking of all this openly may increase the danger, and yet it may also increase vigilance. It did bring into the public dialogue the fears that apparently many people have had, including me. Of course, Clinton introducing this as a reason to stay in the race is abhorrent in the extreme.

The End Games

The week ends for Barack Obama with some big audiences and strong speeches in Florida, a pick-up of six superdelegates on Friday with a report of many more to come, and a slew of new polls that show him getting stronger against McCain in key states.

It ends for Hillary Clinton with a statement that suggests there is something really wrong with her. And for John McCain with another round of dismissing supporters.

Hillary gave as her latest reason for staying in the race that Robert Kennedy was assassinated in June, so--the logic dictates--if Obama is assassinated, then she'll be there to be the Democratic candidate. Such a statement in the week that Ted Kennedy was diagnosed with a malignant brain tumor, and shortly after Mike Huckabee joked about Obama being shot at, is either: politically insidious and pernicious in the extreme in its suggestion, or evidence of a person completely and dangerously out of touch with the darker side of her unconscious.

Rachel Maddow has now written about Clintons end game, which is to continue as a candidate to the convention on the back of the Michigan and Florida situations, which as she points out can be appealed no matter what agreement is achieved or Rules committee decision is made. She suggests that what Obama can do is get the super-delegates to declare in sufficient number to ensure him the nomination even if the two states get 100% of their delegates based on the results of their phony elections.

There's also been noise on Friday about Clinton "supporters" trying to negotiate with Obama supporters to get Obama to offer the v.p. to Clinton, even if she then rejects it, or face "civil war" in the party. This also has the air of desperation.

On the brighter and perhaps more realistic side, Obama got another two Edwards delegates Friday, and super-delegate endorsements that include a Clinton supe who defected, with a statement citing the Michigan-Florida fracus as a reason he had to declare for Obama now in order to begin the general election campaign united. According to Al Giordano of the Field, this delegate--Rep. Dennis Cardoza of CA--is just the first: "The Field has learned that Cardoza is the first of a group of at least 40 Clinton delegates, many of them from California, that through talking among themselves came to a joint decision that all of them would vote for Obama at the convention. They have informed Senator Clinton that it’s time to unite around Obama, and that they will be coming out, one or two at a time, and announcing their switch between now and the convention if Senator Clinton doesn’t do the same." [emphasis is Al's.]

This blockbuster story comes a day after Al G. asserted that Clinton has already asked Obama to name her his v-p, and he refused. So far nobody else has picked up or confirmed these stories, but it must be pointed out that Al G. is not just one of us synthetic bloggers (synthesizing information reported by others) but an active political reporter with sources gained over years of reporting. (Like me, he once worked for the Boston Phoenix.)

Meanwhile, Kos dissects this latest round of polls, and it's pretty much all good for Obama, even in Ohio and Florida. According to the Obama site, he now needs 56 delegates to reach the current magic number for the nomination.

Ted Kennedy asked Obama to give the commencement address Sunday he was scheduled to give. Obama had great crowds in Florida this week, but this video clip from a smaller one is a real gem. "We all have a piece of each other." Watch, listen and enjoy the first weekend of summer.

Attention

One of these days I'm going to resist the temptation to talk to myself about politics here. I used to get frustrated about having no outlet, even a semi-imaginary one, like this blog. Now I'm seeing hours go by better spent in other pursuits. Oh well.

I also know that people are getting really sick of this campaign. So I am really. But Hillary struck fear in many hearts on Wednesday by going to Florida and raising the stakes on her insistence that Florida and Michigan primaries be counted, even saying in an interview that she's willing to take all of this to the convention. Some of her aides speaking anonymously said she doesn't really mean it; another one, on the record, said she does.

That she stepped on Obama's message in his Florida speech (20,000 heard him in Tampa) attacking McCain for his ties to lobbyists--a very important issue to raise at this moment--is enough in itself to annoy the Democratic Party leadership starting to gear up for the general election behind Obama. But she probably raised some other alarms. Either she is talking tough to get a better deal coming out of the Rules Committee on the Michigan and Florida delegates apportioned, or this is a real threat that could seriously wound the party's chances.

She said she would pursue this if the states in question weren't satisfied, and while Michigan seems eager to make a deal, she could be in league with Florida. Michigan has more Obama supporters and support. Florida's Dem leadership has been taunting the party over this for some time, and they may throw in with Clinton on this. It's suicide all around, so it's hard to see whose interest is really served.

Some are suggesting that Obama simply agree to seat all the delegates in the proportions reflecting the outlaw primary results, and he'll still win. But though the Rules Committee likely will defer greatly to Obama and Clinton, what isn't mentioned in this discussion much is that the Committee is set up to deal with party rules, and there are members whose loyalty is to the party. If Michigan and Florida aren't penalized at all, even though they violated the rules and the party (led by Clinton loyalists) voted for sanctions, then the party's authority means nothing.

Clinton's argument likening "counting all the votes" in these contests to the 2000 elections, not to mention Civil Rights and the Magna Carta, is disingenuous in the extreme. These weren't elections, because everyone involved knew they weren't supposed to count. This Floridian notes that even the party called their primary a "straw vote." The sheer meaninglessness of the exercise kept an unknown number of voters home. And in Michigan, of course, Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot. Counting these votes as if this were a real election would be the real injustice, and lots of Democrats know it. So we'll see if the Democratic Party actually has a backbone, because the party and its super-delegates can stop this.

There's another way to look at this, and that's as one of the last ways Clinton has to get attention. Billary made news Wednesday, even though they lost the morning headlines which emphasized Obama passing the majority threshold of delegates by votes. And while Clinton got the attention of Obama supporters and probably of party insiders, it's not clear how much she got elsewhere. Said this Reuter's report: " Attention, whether from button sellers or the national media, is leaving the fading presidential candidacy of Sen. Hillary Clinton behind as the former front-runner faces what most see as impossible odds to win the Democratic nomination...While Obama and McCain spar -- the two clashed this week over whether the United States should talk to leaders of hostile nations -- Clinton's struggle to collect votes in Florida that were cast months ago but invalidated feels like a sideshow."

Attention may be a problem for Clinton after today. There are only three contests left, and the next one (Puerto Rico) is almost 2 weeks away. Though she is favored to win it, little is really known about it, and several Kos posters have suggested it may not be a lock. In any event, it's unlikely to be a blowout. And then Montana and South Dakota are likely Obama victories.

All she's got really is the May 31 Rules Committee meeting to use to make news and stay in the media/public eye. We'll see how successful she can be. But while Hillary talks about the sexism her campaign has suffered, I find it interesting that while most male commentators believe she's going to go gracefully and support the nominee in early June, it's women--led by Rachel Maddow--who are convinced she'll stop at nothing.

The Day After

Some updates on yesterday's events...People are still trying to nail down the Clinton figures but it appears her campaign took in $22 million in April and by the end of the month was more than $19 million in debt. Obama raised $31 million in April and ended the month with $37.3 million in the bank.

Delegates: according to the Field projection:Oregon: Obama 31, Clinton 21. Kentucky: Obama 14, Clinton 37.

On the race: Billary on Wednesday were bloviating about Florida and Michigan in extreme terms, and the convention fight card got shown. This may emphasize Rachel Madow's contention that Hillary is not going to get out of the race until she is forced out.

Ambinder noted the racist vote in Kentucky, while this bothered CNN commentator David Gergen enough that he called for Clinton to reject racist votes. But Chuck Todd sees Kentucky differently: One other thing to keep in mind regarding Clinton's success in Kentucky and West Virginia, and it has to do with the Clinton brand and the economy. These folks in Appalachia have been hit harder by this economy than folks in other parts of the country. And the last time things were looking up was when a Clinton was in the White House. So while there are a lot of folks wanting to think the worst of some of these voters, let's keep in mind: Appalachia and the Rust Belt, more than any other region of the country, are more likely to vote their pocket book when the economy is in the toilet. And this is where the Clinton brand comes into play.

But Todd also sees Obama's so-called working class white problem as specific: Obama doesn’t have a problem with white working-class voters; he has a problem with white-working class voters in Appalachian states. In Kentucky, just one in five of these folks backed him, but in Oregon nearly half of them did.

Todd goes on to muse on the influence of the calendar on these races, and on the perceptions of what they mean that drive the media political monologue: Like above, a lot has been made of the rather simplistic way to figure out who wins a state primary by examining the demographics. But let's not forget the influence the calendar has had. Imagine if states like California, New Jersey and Alabama stayed in their traditional slot of first Tuesday in June? Imagine if Kentucky and West Virginia hadn't been held on days with so few other primaries -- and so much attention placed on them. The order of these primaries has been as influential as the demographics. Would Clinton have won California, Florida and Michigan by the margins she did had those primaries been held after February 5? Would South Carolina been as influential on the national media's psyche if it had been held on February 5 or afterwards? Obama's being over-examined right now on his so-called white working-class problems. But would we even be focused on this issue if Kentucky and West Virginia weren't so prominent on the calendar?

Something else I've noticed about perception is that the numbers they are based on get locked in at a certain point, even though they may change. The media has not caught up with the tightened numbers in Ohio, Indiana and Nevada, for example. They use exit poll information that may have been revised long before. Right now Obama's margin in Oregon is fixed in the media narrative at 58% to 42%, which it was for a long time. But right now, with 96% of precincts reporting, it's 59% to 41%.

Results

Clinton won Kentucky roughly 65-30. Kos pulled out the SUSA polls there from March till now, and Obama never got more than 30%, and Clinton hovered around 62%. Add to that the exit poll stat showing that 21% of Kentucky voters admitted race was important, and they voted by 81% for Clinton. That's more than the 16% who said gender was important, and they voted by about the same proportion for Clinton. So those hard-working racists won another one for her.

So we got the predictable babble about Obama's white working class problem, even though he was later to do very well with white working class voters in Oregon, where he's winning by 16%. Some commentators also tried to point out that Kentucky is a solid Republican state while Oregon is a swing state leaning Democratic, so there goes Hillary's electability argument. (Her hubbie did win Kentucky, though.) What these primaries have shown is that racism is still a factor among uneducated whites in Appalachia, but fortunately, not many other places.

The AP chimed in with a dose of reality early, calling Hillary's win in Kentucky" a victory with scant political value in a race moving inexorably in Obama's direction." Obama spoke in Des Moines, claiming an absolute majority in elected delegates and calling the nomination "within reach." Otherwise, it was a formidable general election speech, both eloquent and issue-oriented. Here's a transcript. Here's the video.

It took Rachel Madow joining the MSNBC panel late to point out that the latest national Gallup poll shows Obama gaining in nearly all demographic categories, including women and the white working class. Older women are the only ones holding for Hillary.

Howard Fineman also reported on what's likely to happen next, and it all depends on how things go in that meeting on May 31 about Michigan and Florida, which is likely to result in some sort of 50-50. If Hillary's forces play nice and accept the compromise, super-delegates will hold off providing Obama with his absolute majority of all delegates until just after the final primary on June 3, so she has time to get out gracefully. If her campaign won't play ball and threaten to make a fight of the Michigan and Florida situation, those super-delegates will declare sooner. But it's not IF those supes will declare for Obama, it's WHEN.

The campaigns made their obligatory reports on campaign donations from April, but the Hillaryites in particular were playing it coy, so it's not clear what their numbers mean. Maybe later today it'll get clearer, along with some better idea of delegate allocation from these two states. I wouldn't be surprised however if there isn't a major super-delegate announcement too.

For some it's Tuesday, for some it's History

After that amazing crowd Sunday in Portland, OR--which some now estimate at 80,000, Barack Obama picked up 5 super-delegates Monday, including Senator Robert Byrd. That's history, already--in his much younger days, Byrd was a member of the Ku Klux Klan and an opponent of Civil Rights in the 60s. Monday he endorsed a black man for President of the United States.

In Montana, Obama was adopted into the Crow nation in Montana, the first presidential candidate to be so honored. More history. His speech showed real understanding of American Indian issues and point of view.

Over the weekend, this article came out, analyzing Obama's "problem" with Jewish voters, and concluding that he doesn't really have one. Jewish voters prefer him to McCain by a large margin, in the most recent Gallup poll. Speaking of Gallup, their tracking poll Monday showed Obama with a 16 point lead.

But now we're talking Tuesday. The cable/TV babblers will begin around 6 pm Eastern (when most polls close in Kentucky) and 7 (when they all close.) If the opinion polls are correct, they should project for Hillary pretty quickly. But then the talk will be more like this AP story from Monday--because even with a loss in Kentucky, that state will provide enough delegates to give Obama the number necessary to claim a majority of total pledged delegates available from all the contests this year. (The range of delegates predicted for Obama in Kentucky is 17 t0 19. He needs 14.5 for a majority.)

Hillary will claim victory but she'll be history by then. Obama will speak in Iowa and note the history his campaign has made, and the babblers will ask, dare the super-dels counter the will of the voters? Let me save you some time: No.

It won't be until 11 Eastern that Oregon begins to announce its vote count. It's a closed mail-in primary, so people will have until 8 PM Pacific to drop off their ballots. A lot of ballots have already been sent in, including a record number this past weekend. Those will be ready to count. Though one cable show I saw quoted the outlyer among polls that shows a close race to drum up some drama, most polls show Obama with a significant lead--in fact, one poll suggests that by Monday Obama had already won. So come 11PM Eastern, Oregon should be projected for Obama pretty quickly.

The predictors have Obama winning 29 to 32 delegates in Oregon. So if he wins 30 in Oregon and 17 in Kentucky, Obama ends May 20 about 62 delegates shy of the number needed to nominate.

Though the babble on Tuesday night might be about the hard-working white voters who didn't vote for him in Kentucky, by Wednesday morning the headlines are likely to be about Oregon--and maybe they'll even mention the hard-working white voters who voted for him there.

Obama speaks to 75,000 in Portland, OR Sunday.
According to Jed Report, that's as many votes as
Hillary got in her worst 8 states combined. If you
were in the back of this crowd, you were a half
mile away from the podium.

On the Cusp of Victory (with Sat. and Sun. Updates)

Barack Obama got 4 new super-delegates Thursday and one Friday (several of them important members of the California congressional delegation), 2 more from North Carolina as adjustments, and at least 7 Edwards' delegates.

According to the Obama campaign, they are now 17 delegates shy of a majority. That will happen Tuesday night, at the latest. The only real suspense is how big his Oregon victory will be, and how close will he come in Kentucky? 20 point victory in O, and getting 40% in K would be A-OK.

In Kentucky, the Lexington Herald-Leader has endorsed Obama with much the same argument as other newspapers:

But while Clinton is an adept practitioner of politics as we know it, Obama is offering something new. He makes a convincing case that he can lead this country without sowing fear and dividing people, the cynical ploys of a political era that has run out of steam.

Obama has given voice to a widespread yearning not just for a changing of the guard but for a changing of the game. And that ability to express a people's aspirations is a mark of leadership.

Like President John F. Kennedy, another senator who electrified young people, Obama also has the substance to transform idealism into action.

The New York Times considers how Republicans fear Obama will put much of the South in play. Marc Ambinder has an interesting Atlantic article on how Obama may use the Internet as President. For instance:

What Obama seems to promise is, at its outer limits, a participatory democracy in which the opportunities for participation have been radically expanded. He proposes creating a public, Google-like database of every federal dollar spent. He aims to post every piece of non-emergency legislation online for five days before he signs it so that Americans can comment. A White House blog—also with comments—would be a near certainty. Overseeing this new apparatus would be a chief technology officer.

But the news of Thursday and Friday was Bush's flat-footed accusation of appeasement, the immediate defense by prominent Democrats, and Obama's swift response to presidential swift-boating, and pointed analysis of Bush-McCain foreign policy failures. After McCain proposed earlier in the week that he and Obama debate without moderators, I'll bet by Friday he was plenty sorry he mentioned it. It's clear already that Obama debating Democrats and Obama debating McBush will be two very different experiences.

Although Obama made a couple of appearances in Kentucky, he's not scheduled to go back before voting on Tuesday. He does have more offices on the ground there than Hillary, but it's not clear how much effort is being put into that state, where Hillary has been way ahead in the polls.

Obama will campaign in Oregon today (Saturday) and tomorrow, and campaigns in Montana on Monday. He's in Florida Wednesday, but so far nothing on his schedule for Tuesday. Where will he be when he passes that magic number, a majority of delegates in primaries and caucuses? Stay tuned.

Sat. Update: Where he will be on Tuesday evening is a rally in Des Moines, Iowa, the state where his candidacy first went before the voters, and where he won his first delegates and first victory...Saturday Obama also was endorsed by another super-delegate. He now needs 119.5 for the nomination. Not sure if that tally yet includes another delegate pick-up in Nevada where the caucus process was completed Saturday. Though Hillary Clinton claimed victory there initially, the final tally according to The Field is Obama 14 delegates, Clinton 11. The Jed Report estimates that Obama's take today is at least 3 delegates, and perhaps 2 more. Jed's projections (I don't know what they're based on) gives Obama a lock on the nomination number.

Meanwhile, there's this video--low on substance, but nicely done.

Sun. Update: Think Obama might win Oregon? He spoke Sunday before a crowd in Portland estimated at 75,000. That's about twice the size of his previous biggest crowd, in Philadelphia... Meanwhile, the Jed Report goes into more detail on why Obama has a lock on the nomination. His estimate includes conservative projections for delegates gained in the last contests.

According to this, on Sunday Obama got 2 add-on delegates from California's primary (Hillary got 3) and Obama picked up a super-delegate from Washington state.

Countdown to Ecstasy

Turn out the liights, the party's overr, at least as far as the Clinton campaign is concerned. Hillary Clinton won big in West Virginia (although Obama actually got more votes there than McCain did running unopposed in the GOPer primary), and it made no difference. Through the day Wednesday, Obama got endorsements (from 3 former SEC chairs to the womens' choice advocacy group NARAL) and another 4.5 super-delegate votes, to go with the four supers and two pledged delegates he got Tuesday.

Hillary's expected WVA win Tuesday was all but overshadowed by the shocking pick-up of a Republican congressional seat in Mississippi that the national GOPers fought hard for, by a Democrat endorsed by Obama who was attacked with TV ads trying to link him through Obama to Rev. Wright.

But Hillary's tour through the TV news shows was utterly overwhelmed by the theatrical endorsement of Obama by John Edwards, amidst a huge throng in Michigan.

Here's Ambinder's list of why the endorsement and its timing is significant (although Obama doesn't automatically get Edwards' 19 delegates, as he suggests), and TPM's brief summary. Edwards got to speak before a bigger and more enthusiastic crowd than he had during his own campaign, and he manifested his pluses and minuses: he can be incredibly eloquent, but he runs it into the ground. Obama let it be his moment, and they did look good together, so I expect he'll be as big a part of the campaign as he wants to be (but not v.p.), and part of an Obama administration.

So if you were plotting this dramatically, Hillary was given her moment, and now the rest of the week is a build-up to May 20. The Obama campaign may or may not exert itself more in Kentucky than they did in WVA--they probably will--aiming for at least a respectable 40 or 45%. But they're ahead by 20 points in Oregon, and that could give him a majority of pledged delegates (he needs just 25 according to the Obama campaign count; 28 according to NBC).

Obama needs about 133 total to achieve the nomination majority, and now it looks that it's going to be a matter of orchestrating when that will happen. I suspect it will happen June 4, the day after the last primary. But it could even happen before then, especially if it's believed that symbolically Obama should get the majority with votes from a contest, not from super-delegates. So the suspense is over, and as far as the Dem campaign goes, the next few weeks should actually be fun.

Preemptive Blather

Keith posed this quiz to guest Dana Millbank: Who said this? Hillary or a Saturday Night Live satire?: "West Virginia will be a turning point in this campaign." Millbank knew right away: it was Hillary. But it was satire anyway.

Hillary will likley win the WV primary today by a huge margin, and get in the neighborhood of 19 or 20 delegates, the numbers folk say, while Obama will win 8 or 10. She'll pick up a net of maybe 12. But in the week since North Carolina/Indiana, Obama has picked up 26 total super-delegates. And it's no longer who gets more delegates, but how many Obama accumulates. His campaign figures he's 150 away from nomination. An AP story Monday said that if he continues to win supes at that pace, he'll have the nomination by the last primary on June 3 (assuming there hasn't yet been a deal for Michigan and Florida that changes the total he needs) even if he loses 3 of the last 6 contests (including WVA.)

Obama folks are bracing for one more bad day: today. Then comes May 20, when with a win in Oregon, Obama is expected to have gained the majority of delegates available from contests--which in itself will spring Nancy Pelosi and her cache of super-delegates. I haven't seen anything recently about Puerto Rico and how close he may come to Clinton's expected plurality there, but that's the last one she's expected to win.

Even the cable news gabbers hysterically trying to fill time with blather today will be hard-pressed to change the story line. I expect a lot of their nonsense to be about the general election. But they still haven't figured out what Frank Rich wrote about Sunday: this is a different election in a different year with a very different candidate. It's been pretty different so far, but they just aren't learning very fast. I don't plan to be watching.

(By the way, Jed Report shows that two polls agree that McCain's association with Bush is more harmful to him than Obama's association with Rev. Wright etc.)

Meanwhile, after appearances in West VA and Kentucky Monday, Obama is campaigning in Missouri, Michigan and Florida (where he'll also be working towards a solution to seat their delegations) as well as Oregon this weekend.

...But the Shouting (UPDATED)

The headline of the day (next to the BBC's GREAT TITS COPE WELL WITH WARMING--it's about the birds, of course, coping with global warming--what did you think it meant? ) is this one from Politico: CLINTON WON'T QUIT; OBAMA DOESN'T CARE.

While Clinton is off getting heckled in West Virginia and playing shock jock with her overtly racist analyses, Obama is mobbed by members of Congress of both parties on the House floor. With every day that passes, the Clinton candidacy recedes. She won Indiana by less than 1%, which means that Rush Limbaugh was her margin of victory. Depending on how many provisional ballots were cast and are still to be counted (Indiana voters without ID have 30 days to prove their residency so their ballot gets counted), her 11,000 vote margin could even disappear.

Hillary's claim that Obama can't win white working class votes created a firestorm in the blogosphere. The "pattern" she referred to isn't even true--Obama increased his share of white working class votes in Indiana and North Carolina from Ohio and PA. While a pollster pulls up numbers to show Obama has proportions of support among white, blue collar and black voters similiar to what John Kerry got in 2004. But the racist tone of Clinton's comments at this stage are not going to win her any friends among super-delegates.

She has no path to the nomination within the rules, let alone the rules of decency. Today there is still talk about her wanting and even demanding the v.p. spot, but that too will soon fade. The Clintons are yesterday. If they hadn't run such a mean-spirited campaign--and especially if they weren't still at it--there might be cause for some sadness in that. But not from me. By the time she wins West Virginia Tuesday, Hillary will be lucky if a cable network other than Fox carries her victory speech.

Meanwhile, the trickle of super-delegates endorsing Obama continues, and threatens to turn into a flood. There will be several more Friday. He may well pass Clinton in the number of super-delegate pledges next week.

Obama has turned his attention to the general election, while still showing respect for the voters in the remaining states with contests by campaigning there. His next victory is likely to be on May 20 in Oregon, when he almost certainly will have obtained the majority of total pledged delegates available from all the primaries and caucuses. If not by then, then soon after, party leaders in Michigan and Florida will have made deals to have delegations seated at the Convention, even if Hillary doesn't approve.

Obama doesn't have to mollify the Clintons or figure out what he has to give them in order for Hillary to drop out. He needs only to show her voters and supporters respect by allowing her to continue until the contests are over--respect that in many cases they didn't show him. And if she doesn't concede by mid June, the super-delegates will move en masse to Obama.

The Democrats are in great position to win the presidency and gain greater majorities in Congress. They aren't going to let that be messed up. The longer the Clintons stay in, the more obvious it becomes to Democrats that they've picked the right candidate, not only to run for President, but to be President.

So on August 28, the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King, Jr.'s "I have a dream" speech, Barack Obama will accept the nomination of the Democratic Party for the presidency of the United States.

Friday update: I don't want to do a new post, especially so I can leave that photo up for the weekend. With something like 9 super-delegates today, Obama has either gone ahead of Clinton or is near to doing so, according to who is counting. The New York Times, among others, notes this, relating it to Clinton's more subdued tone on the stump in Oregon. (I wouldn't trust that when she goes back to West Virginia, though.) Among the several Dem notables who today said that Obama was the presumptive nominee, House whip James Clyburn put a name to what's going on when he said that Obama has reached "the tipping point." Ted Kennedy shot down the Hillary for vp buzz.

One more interesting headline and view: Joe Klein on the Clinton campaign's progress through the stages of grief entitled "Paging Elizabeth Kubler-Ross". Two fascinating tidbits: a SUSA poll that shows that California, which went to Clinton by 10 points, would today go to Obama by 6. Does she really want re-votes? I mentioned above that Clinton's margin in Indiana has shrunk--and it's now about 11,000 votes. But there's no word on what hasn't been counted: military, and especially provisional ballots by people who didn't have proper ID but can bring proof of residence within ten days and get their ballot counted. If you think that's a long-shot, some numbers geeks have discovered in the final Ohio numbers that Clinton's lead declined from about 10 points to 8.8 or 8.7%. Obama got 26,000 more votes than were counted on election night (and figured into exit poll percentages.)

The Obama campaign's 50 state voter registration drive begins Saturday. He's campaigning in Bend, OR before returning to Chicago. Hillary will be back in New York.

Don't They Listen?

The pundits and political experts hear Barack Obama talking about changing Washington and ending the old politics, and say how inspirational he is. And then they demand that he act according to the old politics.

It's starting again on the questions of Hillary Clinton leaving the race, and the related question of who Obama will choose for vice president. I happen to believe that on both of these topics, the conventional wisdom will once again be wrong.

For example, there's an article by Dan Conley in Salon that Teagan Goddard's Political Wire calls a "must read," which suggests the kind of deal that Hillary might get in exchange for her support. His major suggestion is money--a bunch of Obama cash to retire her campaign debt.

There were similar discussions during the endless wait for the Indiana primary finish Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Carl Bernstein said that a couple of Hillary staffers told him she wants the vice-presidential nomination.

I'm pretty skeptical on both specifics. First, the money. If the Obama campaign didn't want to pay Democratic Party people in the wards of Philadelphia to get out the vote, why would they spend their contributors' money on extortion for the Clintons?

Then the vice-president. There's a lot of misinformation about the process going around. The way presidential candidates choose vice-presidential candidates these days isn't the way the Kennedys picked Lyndon Johnson.
There's an elaborate and collaborative process of getting information--and specifically, of vetting. That process is only beginning in the Obama campaign, according to somebody's reporting the other night--it may have been Howard Fineman. In any case, no decision will be made for weeks or months. And in the end, only one person will make it: Barack Obama.

Hillary may or may not be on the initial list. If she is, the campaign will try to discover just what the Republicans will use on her to discredit the ticket. Then they will weigh carefully what she brings to the ticket versus how she weakens it. They will balance her appeal and power within the party against Billary's negative campaigning and above all, her real belief in the old politics, and her identification with the old politics in the mind of voters---especially Obama voters. And they will present all of this information and these views and evaluations to Barack Obama.

And then Obama will decide, on these and other considerations: can he work with her (and Bill)? Will they undermine him in the White House? Will she even be able to see transforming government in the way that he does? I doubt it. But it's his call.

My guess is that he will look most favorably on someone younger than Clinton, someone from his generation. This worked for Bill Clinton and Al Gore--it was a powerful visual and political message in 1992. I do think he'll consider women first.

The other conventional wisdom is that he'll have to pick someone who supported Hillary. (I saw Ed Rendell's name mentioned--I don't think there's a chance of that.) But Obama isn't going to make the conventional choice: he isn't going to choose on the basis of geographical balance, molifying Clinton or her supporters, going for a military/foreign policy figure, or a governor. If the person who interests him the most has any or all of those particular advantages, those will be ancilliary reasons, or just plain bonuses.

He's going to choose someone who identifies with his brand of new politics--someone who also represents the kind of change that was the moral center and the centerpiece of his primary campaign, and will be of his general election campaign.

And the factors that none of us can measure are his judgment of someone's fitness to be President--his kind of President--and of how they relate personally.
So while Gov. Kathleen Sibelius is often mentioned, she has to go through a vetting process (her son has apparently made some waves--how serious is that?) and we have no idea how they get along. On the other hand, Obama is said to be friends with Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano. (And she would break another barrier, though it's never mentioned: there has never been an Italian-American in the White House.)

And while Senator Jim Webb is seldom mentioned, he is Obama's generation, and though he has remained neutral so far, he may be an Obama kind of new politician. I don't know. The point is, no one does. It's a fun game but let's also be realistic. Obama is going to decide, and if he is true to his campaign so far, it isn't going to be a choice made chiefly by the old criteria. Hillary is not going to dictate the v.p. choice. If you believe that, you haven't been listening.

Plus, the premise of all this is questionable, and may become more questionable very soon. Because the party may force Hillary out, before she has to be bribed out. Consider this quote from another story in Salon:

And perhaps most dangerous for Clinton now is the fact that a number of superdelegates -- whom she needs to win over in large numbers to have any chance to emerge the victor -- are losing patience. West Virginia Democratic Party chairman Nick Casey told Salon in a phone interview Wednesday that he wouldn't be surprised if Clinton pulled the plug on her campaign before Tuesday.

Did you get that? The Chairman of the party in West Virginia, where the next primary is held, and where Clinton is supposed to have solid support, suggests that she'll drop out before that primary in his state. And that was only one of the examples.

It's pretty likely now that by as early as May 20 and as late as June 5, Barack Obama will be the presumptive nominee by virtue of having obtained the necessary number of delegates.

How important is Hillary's support in the general election? I don't think that's as obvious as it's being treated. Part of the drama in this campaign has been the loosening grip of the Clintons on the Democratic party, and the resentments that have surfaced. Hillary has strong appeal to constituencies of voters, but in the end, she is part of the old politics that Obama is campaigning against. It is more to her political advantage to be seen as supporting the party ticket, I believe, than it is for Obama to muddy the image of the kind of politics he wants to bring to Washington, by being seen to give in to her demands.

Yes, the party needs to be unified. But the leader of the party sets the tone and the conditions. And that's not Hillary Clinton. The leader is Barack Obama.

The Day After

Analysis from Chuck Todd: "One thing that jumps out at us is his [Obama's] performance in mostly white Indiana counties north of Indianapolis. He either won them or did much better than we expected. While he still struggled against Clinton in areas south of Indianapolis, his performance north of the city demonstrated his potential in the Midwest. Also, Obama improved with Catholics. After losing that group 70%-30% in Pennsylvania and 63%-36% in Ohio, Obama narrowed that margin to 59%-41% in Indiana; in fact, he won the county that includes South Bend. And the gas-tax debate also appears to have been a winner for Obama. Besides overshadowing (a bit) the Wright story over the days leading into last night’s contests, the debate played into Obama’s core message (that he will change the way Washington works) and played into Clinton’s chief negative (that she’ll say and do anything to win)." He notes that the Wright obsession--and these are my words because I'm tired of the "cultural differences" circumlocution--gave racists permission to express themselves, so "You have to wonder how much he would have WON Indiana by if 1) there was no Wright controversy or 2) he had more time."

Clinton lent her campaign another $6.5 million in May, including $450,000 in the past few days, indicating the campaign is really broke. She's also lent the equivalent of her personal earnings. The law allows her to donate half of her income to her campaign, but she's got the joint account to tap.

Lawrence O'Donnell says that Clinton will stay in the race until June 15. Hillary's campaign is still playing race. Score one for Rachel Madow.

Obama got four super-delegates so far today, including one switching from Hillary. The first party elder--George McGovern--has publicly urged Clinton to drop out. And there may be more to come. In a real warning, Senator Dianne Feinstein says she wants to talk to Hillary about her "strategy" for the rest of the campaign. Feinstein is a long-time Hillary supporter, and the California super-delegates are numerous. It's expected that the House members will follow Nancy Pelosi's lead. Now it will be interesting to see what Barbara Boxer does--whether she wants to take the lead in declaring for Obama.

Newspaper sentiment today mirrors the cable news pundits of last night is saying that the race is essentially over. Joan Vennochi writes in the Boston Globe:" It's decision time for Hillary Clinton. Will she accept reality and Barack Obama’s near-clinch of the Democratic nomination? Or will she embrace a “Sunset Boulevard” fantasy world, playing a political Norma Desmond who continues to dream of a triumphant return to the Oval Office? "

Scot Lehigh, another Globe columnist wrote: Last night, reality caught up with Hillary Clinton. The question now is how long it will take for that reality to sink in.Barack Obama's big win in North Carolina, combined with the late night/early morning drama that turned Indiana into only the narrowest of wins for Clinton, did three important things: It ended any sense of momentum she had generated with her sizable victory in Pennsylvania.
It demonstrated that, at least as far as the relevant Democratic primary voters were concerned, Obama has survived the controversy over the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's incendiary remarks.
And in doing both those things, it obliterated the arguments Clinton hoped to use to sway the superdelegates.

Derrick Z. Jackson, Globe Columnist:

Wright flight stopped. Barack Obama came out of North Carolina and Indiana with renewed hopes of regentrification. It was another message that America is struggling toward a better self.

We have had nearly two months of unprecedented media trolling and pollster polling for the damage that Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, did to Obama with white voters. It was unprecedented in the sense that there never has been similar trolling and polling over the associations of white candidates with bigoted religious figures. It was as if a significant chunk of the media and pollsters were daring America to rear its ugliest head. White voters responded by saying, enough is enough."

How Sweet It Is!

It was not only what happened but how it happened. North Carolina was declared instantly for Obama, and the votes kept piling up all evening and (for East Coasters and Midwesterners) well into the night, until he entirely made up Clinton's popular vote margin in PA and added about 25,000 more.

Indiana, which was expected to be anywhere from 10 or even 12% to 6% for Clinton, was not finally declared until after 1 am eastern. Hillary finally won, though her margin may well have been provided by mischief-making Republicans who will vote for McCain.

But for all those hours in between, it became clearer and clearer that the Democratic primary race is over. After trying to maintain a semblance of balance, the cable gabbers began speculating on how Hillary gets out of the race. Tim Russert of NBC said, "We know who the Democratic nominee will be," and Chuck Todd presented the numbers to back this up: with Obama's N.C. victory, there is no conceivable scenario in which Hillary ends up with more delegates and popular votes, not even counting Michigan and Florida.

Or as Senator Obama writes in his email to me: "As of Tuesday morning, we needed just 273 delegates to clinch the nomination. When the votes are fully counted Wednesday morning, we will have gained more than a third of them in a single day."

Rachel Madow was the one voice of "unreason"--that is, she maintained that Hillary has been "post-rational" for awhile, and she will try to continue. But Hillary cancelled her morning talk show appearances--and that's a major move. The New York Times reports the Clinton campaign is "essentially broke."

But let's dwell on the Obama victories (because coming so close in Indiana has to be counted as a victory.) As several TV babblers pointed out, Hillary had her best couple of weeks while Obama had his worst, and at the end of it, he wins by 15 points in the biggest remaining state--and one of the 10 biggest in the nation--and nearly steals Indiana. Demographically, says one analyst, In Indiana, Obama improved his support across several key demographics, despite a bruising month of attacks on his pastor, patriotism and populism. Compared to Ohio and Pennsylvania, he generally drew more votes from white women, Catholics, gun owners, households earning under $50,000 annually, voters prioritizing the economy, and voters without a college degree."

In his N.C. victory speech, Obama said that he has faith in the American people to see past the distractions. These victories confirmed the correctness of that faith in Democratic voters at least, because clearly voters did not swallow the Rev. Wright cable TV obsession and Hillary's phony gas tax holiday proposal.

I'd hoped Obama was going to turn the corner with these elections, I felt he was going to, and he did.

Obama is now so close to a majority of elected delegates that he is almost certain to cross that threshold on May 20, when Oregon votes. The scenario that might shape up is this: enough super-delegates will declare for Obama between now and then to allow Oregon to put him over the top entirely with a majority of all delegates. With the nomination in his pocket, the May 31 credentials committee hearing becomes a formality accepting some close to 50-50 solution for Michigan and Florida.

But even if something that dramatic doesn't happen, the trickle of super-delegates could begin to become a flood very soon. Whether or not Clinton stays in the race long enough to win West Virginia, the May 20 elections in Kentucky (which Clinton is heavily favored to win) and Oregon (which Obama is very likely to win) may bring the process to a complete resolution. Even if super-delegates hold off until after the last contests in early June, the groundwork for what is now clearly going to happen can be built now.

And so it is the night I'd hoped for. The future has a chance. Barack Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee, one step closer to being President of the United States.

Results

730: I just lost everything I wrote--drat this blogger! So Indiana is now officially too close to call, Hillary is supposed to be speaking but what does she say? Obama gave his strong general election speech, and no matter what happens now in Indiana, it's Obama's night. It could be an hour or more before the last 300,000 votes come in from the Gary area. I thought that would be a crucial area of the state, but I never guessed this. However, the Obama people told Chuck Todd that they may have come up 10,000 votes short, while Polbano figures 23,000, which gives Clinton under a 2% victory.

450: A couple of interesting notes from exit polls. Some 60% of North Carolina voters made up their minds a month ago or more. So all this kerfluffle over the past 3 weeks was irrelevant to them. And some 7% of Hillary's voters in Indiana say they would be dissatisfied if she got the nomination, indicating these are the Operation Chaos Republicans, (plus people who misunderstood the question.) The numbers people online are seeing their models shattered in Indiana, though both ways. Indiana may all depend on the turnout and margins for Obama in Indianapolis and especially Gary (which has yet to report any votes.) It's still possible that Hillary will win by double digits, or Obama will squeak out a win.

4:32pm Pacific
Networks call North Carolina immediately for Obama, presaging a big win. Indiana is still not called, a half hour after polls closed in all parts of the state, and a hour and a half after most polls closed. So now the cable gab is about Obama.

2:55pmPacific
I'll just keep updating this without noting updates. The polls haven't yet closed but the first piece of exit poll data may be all that super-delegates need to know: Obama is getting 92% of the African American vote in Indiana, and 91% in North Carolina. If that bears out in the results, it shows an unswerving loyalty to Obama by the most important single voting bloc in the Democratic Party.

(Other People's) Tea Leaves

There are two basic numerical questions in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries: who wins the most votes, and how many more delegates does the winner get?

Realistically, Obama wins a draw, because the largest remaining bunch of delegates will be gone by tomorrow's results. Clinton will likely go on if she gets a split in popular vote wins. But her chances of getting the nomination diminish.

So on to the tea-leavers. This post will be updated throughout Monday and early Tuesday with whatever new predictions there are.

Final SUSA polls show Obama up by 5 in NC. Key comment: There is no foreseeable outcome in North Carolina, regardless of which candidate wins the popular vote, where one candidate collects significantly more convention delegates than the other. CQ Politics concurs--on the district level, they see Obama gaining only 3 more delegates. However, the blogger Poblano, whose PA predictions based on math models I don't pretend to understand were just about dead-on, predicts a much bigger victory for Obama, of 17 points and a 66-49 spread in delegates. He emphasizes that polls significantly underestimated Obama's totals in southern states with big African American populations.

Another wonky online analyst with a good record, PsiFighter37, touts Obama winning 63 delegates in North Carolina to Clinton's 52. He also sees a double digit popular vote margin.

Poblano's analysis of Indiana is a Clinton win by 51-49%, with an even split in delegates. PsiFighter37 says Clinton wins 4 more delegates, with a a Clinton advantage of 6.4% in the popular vote. Most late polls show Clinton ahead, although the margins vary from 6 points to more than 10. Zogby is holding firm with a slight margin for Obama.

And here's a summary of where things stand on Wednesday. The major point: there will be more undeclared super-delegates than delegates at stake in the final contests. Chuck Todd on Keith underlined this point by saying that tomorrow is the last really significant election day of the primaries, and unless Clinton wins North Carolina and Indiana both, she has almost no chance of getting the nomination, either by delegates won or by convincing super-delegates that the momentum has shifted to her.

Update1: Latest PPP poll in Indiana shows Hillary ahead but it's Obama who has the last minute momentum.

Update2: Al G. at The Field has posted his predictions. He gives Clinton a big 10.8 win in Indiana gaining 8 more delegates, and Obama a 6.8% victory in North Carolina, gaining 7 more delegates. So Clinton ends up with one delegate more--far, far fewer than she needs to change the dynamics of the race. Al obviously feels that Clinton's pandering, the TV obsession with Rev. Wright and the rabid right interest in derailing Obama are going to take their toll. It's also worth mentioning that he turned out to overestimate Obama's vote in PA, so there may be a little compensation in this prediction. He also points out, as I did at the top, that a draw is a win for Obama, at least technically.

Update3: Booman at Booman Tribune has posted his Indiana district by district predictions. The outcome he sees is Clinton winning the popular by 51-49 and gaining 4 delegates. Meanwhile, Election Projection has its North Carolina projections: Obama 58.5% to Clinton 39.7%, giving Obama 15 more delegates.

So these are numbers analyses. I've also obsessively read a number of campaign reports. I'm always looking for signs favorable to Obama, and two particular ones stick in my mind: for the recent Jackson-Jefferson Day dinner in North Carolina, equal numbers of tickets were sold to Obama and Clinton supporters. However, fewer--apparently far fewer--Clinton people showed up. The immediate consequence was that Clinton's speech was swamped by Obama chants, but the greater indication is--what? Bill Clinton has been hitting the rural areas, and this could pay off in votes. But will that do much to dampen enthusiasm in the bigger places? Also, North Carolina saw massive early voting, with over 40% by blacks, and--one can surmise--a lot of the white vote by students, who may have voted where they go to school even if they won't be there on election day. Big schools in Indiana won't be in session, so students in Bloomington, etc., had to early vote. I haven't seen numbers on that.

In Indiana, the momentum seemed to be going towards Hillary until this weekend, and if it continues moving toward Obama, that 3% a lot of these folks are giving as Hillary's margin could swing. Here's what tantalized me: a reporter's observation that Gary is solid Obama, not leaning that way. Demographically, that doesn't compute. But could a reporter's instincts suggest something out of the ordinary--white working class voters going for Obama?

I was glad to see a story saying that the Obama people were energized, motivated and optimistic in Indiana. That's his secret weapon there: the Obama faithful from Illinois who can work with mayors backing Obama and counteract the Evan Bayh regulars.

Okay, I'll say it: I'm looking for a double digit win in North Carolina, with double digit delegate gains, and a single digit loss or a victory in Indiana. I have this feeling he's turned the corner. (Okay, I've had it before.)

Update5: the final update in this thread is the Kos predictions: he has Clinton in Indiana 51.1 to 48.9 (which would mean it will be the late late show before the networks can name the winner) and Obama by 12 pts. in North Carolina (which means the cable gab will be about Obama's resurgence.) But I thought it was most appropriate to end this thread with Kos explaining his "system": "If my system sounds stupid, it's because it is. They all are. Ultimately, no one predicts every race accurately, not even the pollsters who actually ask people who they're going to vote for." Amen.

Mo

In what appear to be close elections, it seems to come down to who's got the momentum going into that Tuesday. Could be as much an illusion as everything else, but it gives us something to talk about. Early last week I suggested the polls would go against Obama last weekend, but if by this weekend they were bouncing back, he'd have a shot at carrying Indiana and more confidence in North Carolina.

I hadn't figured on the Wright controversy which extended into mid-week, but the polls and other info suggest that Obama indeed has some momentum this weekend, and may actually have the mo going into Tuesday. The most important poll might be the CBS/New York Times survey that found that a majority are unaffected by the Wright mess, half think TV overdid it, and 60% approve of how Obama handled it. Plus "an overwhelming majority of voters said candidates calling for the suspension of the federal gasoline tax this summer were acting to help themselves politically, rather than to help ordinary Americans." This has been Hillary's main issue in I and NC. Obama's overall margin over Clinton actually increased 4 points, to 50%-38%. This survey was taken this past weekend, May 1-3.

On the macro level, all during this week when cable babble was fixated on Wright, the slow march of super-delegates and powerful endorsements were going much more to Obama than Clinton. Including those who used to be for Clinton. On the micro, Obama has found his themes and his methods of campaigning in Indiana. I remember his "closing argument" two minute ad for Ohio, and I wasn't very impressed. But his two-minute ad for Indiana and North Carolina is a gem.

I spent a few days this weekend in Ashland and Medford, Oregon (that state's primary is coming up), wearing my Obama cap, which got lots of smiles and some conversation. Several people were very troubled by what the Clinton campaign revealed to them about the Clintons, and they were worried that it's damaging the Democrats' chances in November. If that response is widespread, beyond Oregon--and it might be--then there may be sentiment that affects voting at last to end this thing sooner rather than later.

It seems that Hillary's "obliterate Iran" comment has been remembered and remains an issue (it came up in Obama's Meet the Press interview Sunday), and Frank Rich at least has pushed back on the racism involved in the media's attention to Rev. Wright while ignoring the comments of white right wing preachers supporting McCain, particularly Hagee. As an adjunct to Rich's comments, there's these quotations from Hagee's book which doesn't say Goddamn America--it says God has already damned America.

For what they're worth, the state polls in Indiana and North Carolina are still all over the place, though most have Obama ahead in North Carolina and competitive (Zogby even has him ahead) in Indiana. And of course, he won Guam!

Meanwhile, if you're an Obama and Star Wars fan, have some fun with this on YouTube.

Hope V. Fear, the Future V. the Past

It should be pretty clear, Indiana and North Carolina. Above and beyond the crazed distractions, this is still what it's about: hope versus fear, the future versus the past, and reality versus the old politics.

According to Howard Fineman and others, Hillary thinks she has a winner with her advocacy for a gas tax holiday this summer. It fits right in with her new image as the working class girl (even if she can't figure out how to work the 7/11 coffee machine.) So the question now becomes: are people going to choose someone for President of the United States for the next four years on the basis of the slim chance that they'll save maybe thirty bucks this summer?

Obama has all the arguments why it's a bad idea, and most economists agree with him. Plus the fact that it has no support in Congress, and it ain't going to happen. So what can Hillary do about it anyway? It's May. Summer starts in a month. She's a candidate for a presidency that begins in January. If she is so sure this is a wonderful thing, why isn't she back in Washington fighting like hell in the Senate to get it done?

Well, because she doesn't care if it gets done or not. Pandering is one thing. Cynical manipulation of voters' desperation takes it to a new level of scum behavior.

Will people buy it? As Obama says about the possible effect of the Wright drama, "we'll see." The TV pundits are sure it will. For me, it adds to the theme of the week around here: if Indiana and North Carolina don't repudiate this kind of politics, and this kind of media concentration to the exclusion of real problems for real people on the Rev. Wright--especially since they haven't made a peep about the white right wing nutcase preacher Hillary (a white person) prays with, or the very white, very right wing very nutcase preacher who writes that America is under God's curse, whose political support John McCain (a white person) sought and got---if Indiana and North Carolina doesn't repudiate all this by voting heavily for Obama, then this country is screwed. And so is this planet.

Yes, Obama can still win the nomination, and he can still win the election, and he would still have a chance at gaining the mandate he needs to go forward with real change. But it gets more difficult and more contentious if North Carolina and Indiana don't come through.

It's an important moment, and a tense one. I saw a story about morale problems in the Obama campaign, and less than overwhelming efforts in Indiana and North Carolina. I got so many appeals for contributions in the last couple of days that I'm really worried about the Obama campaign's April take. And it looks like Obama's schedule is in flux, with possibly more attention being paid to North Carolina, which should be in the bag by now. It seems Clinton is concentrating on Indiana.

Yet if you watched the YouTube excerpt I linked yesterday, you'll see that Obama has never been sharper. If you watch this one, you'll hear him talk informally with voters (in Indianapolis Thursday) about real ways to make real change--the idea I hadn't heard before was a new level of transparency and involvement for everyone via the Internet. So here's what I think about this: we couldn't ask for a better candidate who would be a better President, nor could we really ask for a better campaign in terms of focus, intelligence and eloquence. We couldn't ask for a better additional voice for it than Michelle Obama's. So if we go down, I'm satisfied it couldn't have been presented better.

The people who go to see him are getting that. It's the people who aren't that need to experience it. Maybe this round of media he's doing will help. Although he has to wade through these absurd questions. What about the flag pin? Are you wearing a flag pin, Mr. or Ms. Questioner? Was Hillary wearing one at the last debate? Was McCain? Does this question make any sense at all?

Yes, it's true that super-delegates are still moving towards Obama, but he needs a big win in North Carolina and a win or a very close loss in the popular vote in Indiana to get this campaign back to reality.

I'm going up to Oregon tomorrow, where I'll be giving visible support to Obama in advance of the primary there, and if I get time from other business, maybe some canvassing. But I probably won't be posting for a few days. Which is okay because I've said it. Indiana. North Carolina. It comes down to them.

Update: Just before I close my computer, this breaking news: that a former Democratic National Committee chair appointed by Bill Clinton, who endorsed Hillary on the day she announced, is switching to Obama Thursday, and urging other super-delegates to join him to bring the race to a close because it is becoming destructive. And he's doing it in--get this!--Indianapolis. He's urging Indiana to vote for Obama. This might even get the media's attention...And it may account for some of that scheduling change. Happy Thursday!