The Day of the Young

Ever since my generation reached 21 (which was the legal voting age then), the power of youth has been highly touted but in the end not enough. George McGovern got huge crowds of young people in 1972, and lost every state but Massachusetts. The young early Internet adopters were the hope of the Howard Dean campaign in 2004, but they weren't enough. Though young voters came out at a higher percentage for John Kerry in November, not enough of them did.

This year we've seen young voters and young people working for the Obama campaign make a real difference, and really come out in large numbers to vote. That phenomenon will be put to its biggest test on Tuesday.

The only reason that Rhode Island is still considered a possibility for Obama are these numbers: 20,000 newly registered voters, mostly young, and a crowd of 10,000 that came out to hear Obama, one of the largest crowds ever assembled in that state.

Young voters and Obama GOTV workers along with union supporters and a larger than expected outpouring from black communities are the keys for Obama in Ohio. But nowhere are they more important than in Texas.

As the Obama ground game, they are up against the older, more experienced party regulars for Clinton. They are the key to getting Obama voters to the polls, and to expanding the voting base that's necessary for him to win.

Nowhere are young people more important in Texas than in the Latino communities. Several seasoned observers noted weeks ago that an age split was developing, with younger Latinos moving to Obama, but such has not shown up in the polls so far. Yet there are those who believe it has been happening, and is happening right now. In fact, this is one of the key groups that Al G. now sees giving Obama a big victory in Texas.

Al is really sticking his neck out here--nobody else so far is predicting Obama will get 53% of the vote, though he insists that's a conservative estimate. He is in Texas, and sees real movement towards Obama in two key groups: the aforementioned young Latinos, and among white men (who he says are responding to Clinton's 3 a.m. phone call fear mongering ad in exactly the opposite way as her campaign intends.)

White men in East Texas have been considered the group that could swing the results either way in the popular vote. Al makes his case that Obama is winning more white male voters, particularly crossover Independents and Republicans. But an old Texas pol who I saw on TV a couple of weeks ago said flatly that white men in Texas will never vote for Hillary. (The question yet to be answered is, but would they tell pollsters they will?)

But Texas is more than the popular vote. The caucuses in the evening are as least as important, and probably more so. That's where young people have come through for Obama best in previous elections, and they will have to come through this time, big time. A lot of rumors are floating around about planned dirty tricks and voter suppression by the older Clinton people. This will be a big test for those young Obama enthusiasts.

All of this demographic theory is speculation and to some extent conventional wisdom--there is no single group that is likely to make the difference. But this certainly is going to be a test, and an opportunity, for young voters to finally make a very big difference for the future. If Obama wins Texas, it will be a repudiation of Clinton's negative campaigning, and will move Obama much closer to the nomination, before there's any further damage to the Democratic party's chances in November.