Monday Afternoon Gloom

It's not just the cloud cover. The morning flood of polls contain almost no good news, and suggest that Obama's momentum has been stopped and the Clinton campaign has it. Only one poll suggests that Obama has momentum in Ohio, but is still down several points. The much respected SUSA poll has Clinton up in Ohio by 10.

The news blogs are also filling up with accounts of Obama's "contentious" news conference in Texas about an aide's informal discussion with a Canadian official about trade, and concerning details coming up in the Rezko trial. These are not likely to produce good headlines for voters to wake up to tomorrow. Hillary may be the beneficiary of this timing.

Much hand-wringing and knashing of teeth among Obamaphiles online, because of how Clintonians will spin popular vote victories, how the media will bite on a new story line, and how much longer this will go on, with Hillary gaining traction by being negative.

Almost no one believes she will come out of tomorrow with a significant increase in delegates. Obama is likely to do particularly well in the Texas caucuses. But the Clinton campaign is clearly not in the mood to quit, unless they get devastated by substantial Obama victories. Right now, given the expectations, that could be five points. A good summary of where things realistically stand is here. If Obama wins the popular vote in one of the big states, the consensus is that Clinton will be under a lot of pressure to stop.

The Obamaphiles looking for consolation are trying to remember their anxiety before Wisconsin voted, and some are parsing the polls and questioning whether the assumed African American turnout is too low, especially in Ohio--getting that right has been the single most important factor in accurate polling predictions. SUSA has it pretty low in Ohio, which worked for them in CA but may not tomorrow. The AA vote has been pretty energized since South Carolina.

One theory about the Clinton resurgence in Ohio, if it turns out to exist, is that she was able to neutralize Obama on NAFTA, convincing voters that she was just as intent on changing it, and made a better case on health care, possibly by scaring them with her mantra of Obama's plan leaving millions out. Since MSNBC did so well in the ratings with last week's debate, they've rebroadcast it several times--on Friday and Sunday, for example. The 16 minutes on health care now looks like a lost opportunity for Obama, who spent his time parrying Clinton on her charges about his plan, etc., but missed making two of his strongest points. First, that nobody's plan is going to get passed as it is, but he has a process of opening the discussion, putting it all on C-SPAN. Second, when Hillary insists "this is personal," Obama needs to take that ground away with the statement he makes in several ads about his mother, dying of cancer, worrying more about the bills than getting well. That's personal. Hillary's intensity is personal mostly in terms of her own ego, and trying to compensate for failing the first time.

But--about the gloom. It's partly that people who feel deeply the need for change and certain changes are all too used to getting their hopes dashed at the last minute, especially on election day. It's even worse when there's been such extraordinary feeling behind a candidate who is running on hope, bringing people together, and who represents hope in so many ways. It's such a big change from how things have been done, represented by the Clintons, that it's amazing it's come this far--that's the feeling, that the balloon can be burst at any time, that the dream--once again--is denied.

Obama's closing argument--in those two minute spots, with him talking directly into the camera--expresses this fundamental rationale for his candidacy. There is still the underlying dynamic of the electorate's desire for change. If it doesn't surface this time overwhelmingly, it may be that the presentation of the message is getting stale. But the message itself is still the right one. At least Obama is not depending on typical last minute sniping on details, as in Hillary's ads. He's sticking with his fundamental case.

Obama will still be on track to win the nomination, even if he loses the popular vote in three of the four states tomorrow. But the old politics will be back in play, Clinton the survivor will be riding high, and she will set about systematically trying to destroy Obama. The catastrophizing goes further to disillusioning the millions who have poured their heart into the Obama campaign, leaving the Democratic Party worse off than it was before.

This is quite understandable--I've seen such defeat turn young people away from politics. There is the sense that Obama needs to close the deal tomorrow or this thing gets ugly--and even more exhausting. But even if Hillary gets a few votes more, basks in the media light for a week, the Obama campaign won't give up--more money will flood into it, and there will be more victories beginning next week. But it will also be a long, long six weeks until the Pennsylvania primary... If this afternoon's gloom turns out to be justified.