Monday Morning Reality Check

Hillary Clinton is spending most of Monday in the state of Ohio, before evening events in Texas, then returns to Ohio for returns on Tuesday. Barack Obama has scheduled several events in Texas Monday, and will stay there for election night.

What does this tell us? The consensus has been that Hillary's best shot at a win is Ohio, but she may be worried enough about that to cancel her original plans to spend Sunday and Monday in Texas and instead must barnstorm through Ohio, the state that should have been solid for her by now. Either she feels she is behind or senses that she can get a bigger win if she stays there.

The consensus lately has been that Obama is stronger in Texas, but polls that showed him ahead were moving back to even, and over the line to Hillary. So he's playing defense as well. He can't believe that Ohio is a certainty.

So what happens if they split? Though Jake Tapper doesn't see Hillary dropping out if she wins Ohio, an LA Times piece today says this:

In a campaign that has frequently defied expectations, a consensus emerged as the candidates caromed across the country: Clinton must win Texas and Ohio to have any serious hope of sustaining her bid to become the nation's first female president. A split decision would not suffice, analysts said, and winning narrowly may not help.

"We're reaching a point where -- not all voters, but lots of voters -- are starting to feel it's time for the party to coalesce around a candidate," said Geoffrey D. Garin, a veteran Democratic pollster who is nonaligned in the contest. "The Clinton campaign has to have a compelling and persuasive reason to go on. . . . She's got to come out of Tuesday with people believing that she has a realistic path to the nomination."

This is pretty much what Bill Richardson said on Face the Nation Sunday, and it remains to be seen, depending on Tuesday's outcome, whether he was speaking for himself only, or if he's stating the position of the "unaligned nations" within the Democratic Party.

It may take a great deal of pressure--in fact, it may take a super-delegate tide--because Hillary Clinton on 60 Minutes Sunday said she wasn't going to drop out, and that her husband didn't secure his nomination until June.

The leftover buzz from Sunday...Really bad weather forecast in Ohio Tuesday...
Hillary " denial [ of Obama being Muslim] seems other than ironclad" and her adding "as far as I know" on 60 Minutes...What will Obama's two minute spot say that's set to play in every media market in Texas and Ohio Monday and Tuesday?

Also from the weekend: Obama endorsed by the Cincinatti Enquirer.