Sunday Spin

The impression of Sunday coverage is that Hillary Clinton has the momentum now, going into the last day of campaigning before the votes are counted in Ohio and Texas. The Clinton campaign may have successfully cowed the media with charges that they'd been unfair to Hillary, or the facts on the ground merit this, or a little of both.

The polls seems to have stopped moving except one or two points either way, within margins of error. Enthusiasm for Obama measured by his crowds has not abated, but at least for one event in Ohio, enthusiasm--even rebellion-- seems to have returned to Hillary's campaign.

One story suggests the Obama campaign itself sees both big states as very close, and they aren't optimistic about taking Ohio. Al G. at the Field projects that Clinton will indeed win the popular vote in Ohio, but will not get more delegates. The same may be true of Texas.

If Hillary wins one or both, plus Rhode Island, ABC's Jake Tapper believes she'll surely stay in the race. The impression one gets today is that this Tuesday is another Super Tuesday situation, in which Obama weathers the storm, actually gets more delegates, and then goes on another winning streak until Pennsylvania. Clinton is apparently unprepared in any other upcoming contest, while the Obama campaign has already started.

This is not necessarily what will happen. DHinMI at Kos shows how Obama has overperformed in terms of pre-election polling by more than 8%. The Obama ground game plus new voters has generated big unforeseen numbers before, as recently as Wisconsin.

But Ohio and Texas are different in terms of Hillary's prior support in both states, much stronger than in Wisconsin. The polls seems to indicate that she's holding on to her core voters: blue collar and women in Ohio, women and Latinos in Texas. No one knows yet if her national security arguments--the fear factor--are making a difference, but Obama has been more on defense, even needing to fend off once more the charges that he is secretly Muslim. As astonishing as that may be at this point. He has also been counterattacking, however, which doesn't address his core constituency but may influence other voting groups, such as white men in Texas, a key to the state (some say.)

If Obama wins big in both big states, then it is over, and his campaign appears to be spending mightily to make that happen. If he doesn't, the Clintonistas will use that big effort against him, to sow doubt that his candidacy has staying power. Her campaign has been saying as much and the media would possibly be open to a change in the storyline--because they almost always are--if she so much as squeaks out a popular vote win in one big state.

To add to the expectations game, Bill Richardson said Sunday that Tuesday should decide the race, that it is becoming too divisive, and that the clear leader after Tuesday should be the nominee. That would most certainly be Obama. This Sunday spin spills over to Monday in the New York Times which reports Richardson's comments, along with calls for Hillary to drop out unless she wins both states by large margins from Senators John Kerry and Dick Durbin, Obama supporters.

Clinton campaigned furiously in Ohio Sunday, while Obama had two events in the state before returning home to Illinois. He will head to Texas Monday (San Antonio, Dallas area, Houston), and will be in Texas on election night. Clinton is scheduled to remain in Ohio all day Monday, before evening events in Texas.

Al G. warns that it's going to be a long night finding out what's happened in Ohio, especially since the Cleveland area ballots are probably going to be the last to be counted (and that's Obama country.) There are also concerns that the election won't go smoothly, despite the record early voting. As a result of "allegations" of electronic vote theft in Ohio in 2004, much of the state has turned to paper ballots for the first time in awhile.