Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Hopeless in Ohio?

Exit polls suggest Ohio Dems voted their fears, and that's enough to energize the Clinton campaign, which is clearly trying to preempt any talk of them getting out by throwing themselves a big party in Ohio and announcing that Bill Clinton will be off to Wyoming to campaign for the next contest Saturday.

So how this day is characterized will largely depend on Texas, and perhaps Rhode Island. That is, whether the media will buy what's clearly going to be the Clinton spin. At the moment, the vote count in Vermont isn't showing the kind of bulge for Obama that would give him that significant delegate jump. But I have no idea of what the count means at this point.

Early returns from Texas show Obama doing very well, but those appear to be early voting returns, and Clinton may have gotten a lot of her votes in the past week or so. So while it's a good sign, it's not definitive or even indicating much except that the Obama organization in Texas did a great job getting their voters to vote early.

The good news in Ohio: the Obama campaign successfully sued to keep Cleveland area polls open another hour. The bad news: it's because of weather that's come through there in the past few hours--sleet, ice, snow, the whole thing. If voting is suppressed in this key area, Obama's chances dip dramatically.

Exit polls in Texas: Hillary held on to 2-1 advantage with Latinos, even in white men, which tends to indicate that this is going to be closer than the first returns indicate, which show Obama with a big bulge.

Top of the hour: McCain wins the GOPer nomination, both Texas and R.I. too close to call.

During Huckabee's concession, NBC calls Rhode Island for Hillary.

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