The Moving Wire

Kerry has won Pennsylvania and California, so there are but 9 electoral votes separating the candidates. Florida and Ohio are still out, and they could still be out for days and perhaps a week.

CNN is reporting that the Kerry people believe they will probably lose Florida. The only hope is a last minute surge from South Florida that gets the vote to the point where the early voting and absentee votes will make the difference.

On the other hand, Ohio is still very much in play, but the GOPers are reportedly slowing things down with law suits.

In the blogger vs. cable scenarios for the election, it looks like the cable view is closer to what's happening. Josh Marshall has said flatly on his blog that the youth vote did not materialize. That's very bad news. But statistically there was a large surge of new voters.

The midwestern states are still out, and that's where the Kerry campaign has concentrated over the last weeks. Absent Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan are all crucial to Kerry.