Ten Eastern, Same Old

CNN projects Utah for Bush. Boy that's a tough one. He was only ahead in the polls there by about 45 points. No other states projected. Virtually no swing states have been projected yet.

At ten eastern, the exuberance of earlier in the evening is sinking a bit. But Kerry looks good in New Hampshire and PA, and exit polls still show him ahead in Ohio. The big mystery is Florida, where so far Kerry is running behind exit poll projections. But the big Democratic counties are just starting to report, and nobody is sure if early votes (which seemed to be largely Kerry) and absentees are yet in the vote count. Lots of suspicion that Florida is carefully fixed again this time.

Kerry needs PA and either Ohio or Florida. If he gets two of the three, he still needs most of the midwest. If he gets all three, as looked possible and still may be, he's on his way. Right now the GOPers are winning the spin, hoping to influence in western states where polls are still open. Kerry people haven't been seen for awhile.

The tantalizing element here has been that safe Bush states weren't called for hours, but when they were, they were still safe Bush states.

Carville is saying that Bush needs to win both Ohio and Florida. Kerry needs to win one of them.

Missouri is tighter than expected, which may be good for Kerry---if he unexpectedly picks it up. If he just gets close, not so good because they pulled ads out. Joe Lockhart is talking a good game but doesn't look confident. He sounds either worried or excited. But at least the Kerry case is being made. Democratic counties still not in, in Ohio and Florida. Some of the delay may well be because of the huge turnout. CNN just cut off Lockhart, while they showed Bush watching returns.

Florida: Absentee votes in Broward, Miami-Dade and other counties may not be counted until Thursday. GOPers are gaming the system in Florida and Ohio. But they may only be able to postpone the results. Maybe the idea is to give hope to the western GOPers, where Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico will be close probably.