V Minus 2

To be fair, Newsweek and ABC are saying the last minute tilt is towards Bush. Josh Marshall thinks the media is being gamed again by the Rove machine, which did precisely the same thing in 2000, when polls showed Bush ahead by several points (as many as 12). We haven't seen much evidence of this tilt. Most of the national tracking polls have moved only slightly, and usually in Kerry's direction. The Osama effect seems to be subtle if even present. As of today, Kerry maintains a one point lead in the Washington Post poll, has moved up to a 2 pt lead in Fox, and is tied in Zogby and the Fox three-way.

If you go with the theory that Bush has to be over 50 percent at this point, he's toast. If you believe that turnout will determine the election, especially by new voters, ditto. And if you look at state polls, the same. Here's another indication quoted by Electablog though not sourced:
37% of Kerry voters said this is the most important election of their lifetime, while only 27% of Bush supporter said the same.

There is a new Ohio poll out showing a tie. Michael Moore has organized some 1200 videographers to tape at polling places in Ohio, and an effort to do the same in Wisconsin is being mounted. These two states along with Florida seem the prime but not the only targets for GOPer voter suppression and intimidation, including challenges.

The final tally on newspaper endorsements show 42 papers that endorsed Bush in 2000 have switched to endorsing Kerry, while 15 went neutral. Only 6 switched from Gore to Bush.

Happy Halloween (or in Lake Woebegon, where fundamentalist protestors got the name changed, Happy Fall Festival. Garrison says the spirit of Halloween is that it's better for good people to dress up and pretend to be evil, than evil people to dress up and pretend to be good.)

The official AmericanSamizat Halloween chant of 2004 (picked up from somewhere on the blogosphere):
Bush is scary
Vote for Kerry