V minus 1

Curtis Gans of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate expects a record turnout for this election, in the range of 118 to 121 million. The election in 2000 was around 105 million. He expects this turnout to surpass the 58% in 1992, the first Clinton win.

The additional voters come from two sources: people who don't normally vote and people who are voting for the first time. In both groups are young people, who trend towards Kerry more than any other demographic group trends towards anybody.

I'll bet that's what Kerry will be thinking about as he takes the stage tonight with the Boss, Bruce Springstein.

Gans thinks the higher the turnout, the better it is for Kerry.

All the polls are tight, or hedging their bets. Poor Fox is showing Kerry ahead. Apparently Rush is having a heart attack on the air. CNN's Gallup poll and poll of polls show Bush with a statistically insignificant lead nationally. But a few things about their internals are interesting: both the missing munitions in Iraq AND the Osama tape are helping Kerry---his numbers on Iraq and the war on terror are up.

So far today, no big news as the election dominates. Suicide bomber in Israel is the only story with potential to move votes, but not many.

The state by state polls are still extremely close, when they aren't all over the place. Here are the good signs: there appears to be a Sunday trend towards Kerry, and late deciders breaking for Kerry. Bush can't crack an average of 48% in the polls, and his presidential favorability remains around 50% or below. We've said for weeks that if the polls are even by election day, Kerry has the advantage.

Why? Because early voters are standing in the rain in Florida today for four hours waiting to vote. Because thousands stood in the driving rain in Milwaukee to hear John Kerry. Because there are one million volunteers working tomorrow. Because as Zogby said, there are NO undecideds among young voters, which indicates they are all going to vote.

In fact, by the time all the polls open in Florida tomorrow, two million people in that state will have already voted. The total Florida vote in 2000 was six million. Early voting virtually everywhere trends to Kerry, though the margin varies from a little to a lot.

In Ohio, two federal judges have banned vote challengers from polling places, in a significant victory if it stands up to a GOPer appeal today. Gallup is giving Ohio to Kerry, though their poll today shows Ohio trending back to Bush. It's going to be trench warfare in Ohio, PA, Florida, the cities of Wisconsin, and in New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado.

Bloggers are indicating a little nervousness, with the available numbers stubbornly refusing to show big trends. Everyone is at least a little bothered by uncertainties over Ohio, PA, Iowa, Wisconsin especially. But a lot of this is last minute jitters. Sugar-induced optimism has become "cautious optimism." Ain't no such thing, boys and girls. Victory is one day away.

Kerry is spending the day in the Midwest, which seems to indicate that the campaign figures it has a chance to take all those states, and win the whole thing there. Kerry appears with the Boss in Cleveland, and after the Boss plays in Wisconsin. He looks and sounds strong and confident. No matter what happens, we can all be proud of our candidate, the race that he's run, and his innovative and dedicated supporters everywhere.

Blood brothers in the stormy night
With a vow to defend:
No retreat, baby, no surrender