Manic Monday (Continued)

The Gallup daily tracking poll shows that Obama and Clinton are tied nationally. A final CNN poll shows the same basic result. At this point, the polls basically reflect momentum for Obama, and with Tsuami Tuesday tomorrow, even that is not much of a guide, as we've seen momentum swings on the final day, unmeasured by polls.

Here's the sense of what I'm getting about tomorrow: According to Kos, if Hillary doesn't get at least 200 more total delegates than Obama, her campaign is in trouble. According to the Obama campaign, their goal is to get within 100 delegates of Clinton's take. In a memo they list how far behind they were--less than two weeks ago Clinton led in CA by 12 pts., Arizona by 21, Conn. by 14, Georgia by 7, Massachusetts by 37 points, etc.

If Obama does win some states and gets between 100-200 fewer delegates (or of course he gets more delegates than Clinton) he is on track for the nomination, because the contests after Tuesday tend to favor him, and because he probably has more money to spend. If Hillary has a big night, and if this sparks new contributions, then it could be a long spring.

States to watch for Tuesday: Georgia should come in early, and it should be a big Obama win. If it's not, could be a long night. In the Northeast Obama has a shot at Conn. and now even Mass. If he takes New Jersey, or even comes close, it's a long night for Clinton. I expect Obama to do pretty well in New York.

Later in the night, and into Wednesday: the media will be watching Missouri and of course California. If Obama wins both, the pundits will say it's just about over.

Skimming the statistical analyzes of polls, patterns etc. is like listening to economists who always have good reasons for their predictions as long as they never revisit how wrong they were last time. Because of Obama's appeal to people who don't normally vote or who have never voted, the numbers are no more than rough guides to direction. The numbers folks said that Obama's fast rise was impossible, and now that it has apparently happened, they've got other statistical limitations. We'll see.

As for endorsements, Al G. at the Field has an interesting explanation for why Al Gore will endorse Obama, but not until after Feb. 12, when Obama is expected to do well in the Potomac primaries. But not waiting that long were Joan Baez and today, Robert DiNiro at a New Jersey rally, who endorsed Obama. It was another in a series of Obama's huge events, as Tsunami Tuesday approaches.

Later--
Also released: a letter signed by "more than 100 feminist leaders" endorsing Barack Obama for his position on the war. Hillary's campaign has made it official--they raised $13.5 million in January. As the Washington Post says, that's normally a lot of money--but it was the month that Obama raised $32 million.

Here's another sense of things I'm gleaning from coverage today. The theory is that Hillary got a late surge in New Hampshire for two reasons: her widely covered show of emotion at a diner, and women who didn't want to see her humiliated by the double-digit spread predicted for Obama. Well, today Hillary got media coverage again for last minute tearing up (in neither case were there actual tears shed.) Will it work again? There's doubt that it will. Once is genuine, twice just before election day looks less sincere, or at least doubtful. And as for the broader sympathy vote, nobody today is predicting an Obama landslide though the buzz is of him drawing even. The question is, will either of these--or the synergy of both of them--cause (primarily) women voters who are otherwise wavering to vote for her? It's possible. But it does seem less likely.

Hillary was counted out just before New Hampshire. Right now she seems to be running out of tricks, running out of money and momentum. She could surprise us again. Or it could be real decline, with fewer and fewer options.

I read somewhere than more than 100 newspapers endorsed Obama. Here's an interesting endorsement of Obama from Native American Times:

Obama has started to aggressively reach out to Native Americans in word and deed. In his words he has put together a policy which truly addresses Native problems. In his deeds he has actually gone to Indian reservations to seek our votes. He is also the co-sponsor of the all important Indian Health Care Improvement Act. And he continues to seek the Native vote. As he explains it, he says he understands to be treated differently and unfairly. Part of the change he proposes is one of justice and equality. He is also proposing sweeping changes in health care for Native Americans that include mental health. While the economy is the driving issue on the national stage its ‘Health Stupid,’ in Indian Country. People are dying too soon, babies are not making it to adulthood, and diabetes is robbing our way of life in ways never imagined. It’s hard to worry about the paycheck when you are too sick to go anyway.

This reminds me that the first national politician I know of to campaign in Indian Country was Robert Kennedy. I also met an Inuit who more than 30 years later recalled RFK's visit to Alaska, and that his brother shook his hand.