Monday, February 04, 2008

Manic Monday

It's barely midnight and it's started already! Zogby tracking polls done Sunday show Obama with the big mo: "enjoying a big Sunday bounce"--increasing his lead in California, going ahead in Missouri, tied in New Jersey. These are the three day tracking averages. The difference for Sunday alone was considerably greater:

Pollster John Zogby: "A very big single day for Obama in California (49%-32% over Clinton) and Missouri (49%-39% single day). In California, Obama has widened his lead in the north and pulled ahead in the south. He leads among Democrats and Independents, liberals and moderates, men (by 21 points),among whites, and African Americans. He holds big leads among voters who say Iraq and immigration are their top concerns. Clinton holds a big lead among Hispanics (though Obama has made some inroads), women, voters over 65, and has pulled ahead among those citing the economy.

"In Missouri, Obama leads two to one in the St. Louis region, and has solid leads with independents, voters under 50, and African Americans. He also leads among Missouri women. Clinton leads among whites and has big leads in the Kansas City and southwestern region.

This is just one poll, and one that some politicos don't necessary trust so much, plus the leads are razor thin. But it does suggest that Obama still has the mo--and in California the Maria Shriver endorsement is going to play all day Monday in newspapers and on TV. It also suggests again that Obama is going to get a pile of delegates. But if he were to win California and Missouri, let alone New Jersey--he'd be near unstoppable.

Speaking of California, I've been a bit puzzled by the insistence of pollsters than John Edwards' voters are splitting equally between Obama and Clinton. I don't see that, and now the SF Chronicle suggests it's because it's not happening--at least here in California, where his big supporters--including three of his state co-chairs--are declaring for Obama. Over at Kos, Clinton picked up very few Edwards supporters. Active supporters are different from voters of course, but when they are mostly all heading in the same direction, you'd think most of their voters would.

One prominent Edwards supporter has provided an important endorsement for Obama--Kate Michelman, former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, and an Edwards campaign "surrogate." Like the people who are "close" to Nancy Pelosi, or the wives of various politicians, Michelman's endorsement is said to indicate the preference of John and Elizabeth Edwards. I wouldn't be surprised if they do favor Obama, just as I wouldn't if it turns out that Richardson, Biden, Dodd and Gore do. But the train is leaving the station for those folks--especially the ones with primaries in their states on Tuesday. After that, who's going to care who Richardson, Biden and Dodd endorse? Edwards may believe he's in a more strategic position afterwards, and maybe he is. But maybe he isn't.

Speaking of Biden's state of Delaware, Obama's rally there in Wilmington Sunday morning was said to be the largest gathering in the state's long history. In any event, the Kos diary that asserts it has some neat photos. Though nobody compares to Al Rodgers over there, and he's outdone himself with this one. A lot of his photos are from New York City as well as the Delaware rally and the Los Angeles event with Oprah, Caroline Kennedy and the surprise appearance (and endorsement) of California First Lady, Maria Shriver. That event was live on C-Span--nicely timed for Super Bowl Widows--and rebroadcast later. I caught most of the replay, including Michelle Obama speaking. Now I know why she's the campaign's closer. The two best speakers on the campaign trail in the same family? And not Billary.

No comments: