Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Tsunami Tuesday, part 3

6:30 p. It's time to define "disappointment" in an Obama partisan mode: it means he isn't getting states in Hillary's northeastern sphere of influence where she was leading by double digits just a few weeks ago. So one network is calling Mass., New Jersey and New York for Clinton. The delegate question is not settled. The NY Times points out that Clinton outspent Obama in Mass. 2 to 1 for TV ads, and that their organization was strong. Earlier in the year, Mass. was considered Clinton's strongest state outside of New York.

Also, the Times online is being very careful with their projections: they've given only Tenn. and Mass. to Clinton, Georgia and Illinois to Obama.

However, Obama is projected by NBC as victorious in Delaware and Alabama, where Clinton also led in the polls. The Times notes that in Georgia, women went to Obama by 2-1 margin. An 80% black vote has to be factored into that.

The storyline so far is that nobody is getting a landslide, that Hillary is not done yet, but that demographic trend lines all favor Obama--according to exit polls he's getting about 44% of the white vote, and increasing his inroads into votes of women and Latinos, while increasing his lead in black and young voters. There's some bad-mouthing of the Kennedys, Kerry and Governor Patrick for not delivering Mass. to Obama, but all the votes aren't in and it may be closer than projected.

A factor they aren't talking about is today's weather. Tornadoes in Arkansas and Tennessee are just one example of the bad weather in many primary states.

On the Republican side, the TV narrative seems to be that McCain is not getting the landslide across the country--so far-- that was expected. Huckabee is apparently doing better than expected.

7p. Somebody has apparently called Kansas for Obama. NBC called North Dakota and Utah for Obama. Conn. is still out, with Obama reportedly leading. Missouri also, with Clinton reportedly leading.

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