The Osama Effect

On Friday before the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, a tape of Osama bin Laden talking mostly to Americans is rippling across the mediascape. What does it mean?

First, and this is a wild guess, if not a wild charge, it may be Act I in the October/November Surprise. The immediate effect of Osama's appearance is to prove that he is still alive. The tone of the message is relatively subdued, and one is tempted to say a self-elegy. Could Osama know that his capture or killing is imminent, and he has issued this last message? Are we going to wake up to that news on Monday? Or is it the accidental setup to a major attack on Faludja over the weekend or on Monday?

The political content of the Osama message is that American security is not up to Kerry or Bush or al Qeda but the American people, presumably meaning the American policy in the Middle East. But Osama does single out Bush for specific insult, as if he'd seen the scene in Michael Moore's film of Bush sitting stunned in front of schoolchildren after he's learned of the Twin Towers attacks.

Bush's first reaction to the tape was remarkably statesmanlike, Kerry's was also statesmanlike and nonpartisan while rather skillfully boosting his own credentials as a terrorist fight. However in a very short time, everybody--including Bush and Kerry--- were trading charges and accusations again.

So far we've seen two prominent blogs comment, kos and Marshall's Talking Points, and they both caution that the tape's release may not be a major factor in the election, especially to Bush's advantage. That's apparently the opinion of some TV talking heads, though that caution could change should one side or another get control of the spin over the weekend.

Maybe it's wishful thinking but absent Act II, we agree. That bin Laden is hale and hearty actually supports Kerry's arguments that Bush took his eye off the war on bin Laden to go after Saddam and in the process, has provided more new terrorists and ammunition than bin Laden had ever dreamed of.

The test of the tape's effect will be if it is dominating the news on Monday. It's the weekend, with Halloween in it. Foremost on many people's minds is to remember to set the clock back an hour Sunday night. But Monday will be the last time a lot of people will focus on the news the media is reporting.

It is also so late in a year when the undecideds are few that there aren’t too many votes to influence. Some soft supporters of one candidate may switch, of course, based on what they are most afraid of and who they feel will protect them. Though Bush does much better on terrorism in polls of those people being polled, the other major stories of the week---the missing munitions, the favoritism to Halliburton—--fall into line with Osama’s sudden reappearance in Kerry’s argument that Bush, however resolute, is resolutely screwing up with tragic results, likely to get worse. How this tape affects your feelings depends on where your thinking is. To us, it’s a strong argument for Kerry. It will be for others, too. It may do some damage in skewing the momentum Kerry had been building among undecideds, splitting some folks off. But it is unlikely to affect the new voters and the Remember the Chads disenfranchised who are the army of the future.

Although the impact of the tape may be to raise fears of a new attack, its appearance and message that Americans can guarantee their own security by not intervening in the Middle East, seems to suggest that no attack is imminent, especially aimed at disrupting the election, if anyone was afraid of that any longer.

But its specific impact won't be known until after the election, if ever. The polls that will come out this weekend won't measure it, and polls taken on weekends are even less reliable than others.