V minus 8

The Big Dog is back.

Bill Clinton wowed a tremendous crowd in Philadelphia, estimated at between 80,000 and 100,000 . He'll be in Florida tonight and tomorrow, and has scheduled appearances for Kerry in New Mexico, Nevada and Arkansas.

In the latest state polls as we start the week, Arkansas has moved towards Kerry and is tied. Florida and Wisconsin are tied. Kerry has moved slightly ahead in New Mexico. The Zogby poll has Kerry ahead in Colorado but slightly behind in New Mexico.

Several newspaper endorsements in Florida went to Kerry, including the Orlando Sentinel, one of a number of newspapers that endorsed Bush last time but Kerry this time. The preponderance of editorial support in Florida is for Kerry, and some papers have declined to endorse at all, when they endorsed Bush last time.

Kerry is ahead in Ohio, has increased his lead in PA, has moved ahead again in Michigan, and has a solid lead in New Hamphshire.

The Columbus, Ohio paper endorsed Bush, reportedly pitting the editorial staff (for Kerry) against the publisher (a Bush supporter.) That same conflict was reported at the Cleveland Plain Dealer, with the result that their endorsement was postponed.

Bush is still slightly ahead in Iowa, Nevada and Minnesota (though Zogby has Kerry ahead in MN), but his lead has declined.

Nationally in the less important head to head polls, the usually GOPer CNN/Gallup has Bush ahead, as does the more reliable Zogby tracking poll, but the Rasmussen tracking poll puts Kerry ahead by 2 points among likely voters, tracking a steady decline in Bush's numbers last week. The Washington Post poll also has Kerry ahead, with 55% saying the Bush administration is leading the country in the wrong direction.