V minus 2.5
actually less than that in most of the country but...

The bad news is continued voter suppression efforts. In Wisconsin the R party is demanding that EVERY voter be required to show an ID or they will challenge EVERY voter. It's in the courts. And nationally, the Ashcroft Justice department has gone to several state courts with the same claim---that voters can't sue to restore voting rights, only Ashcroft can! Here's the LA Times story:
Bush Seeks Limit to Suits Over Voting Rights

The good news: the latest state polls! Kerry is up by 3pts in New Hampshire, 3 pts. in Iowa and by 8 points in Minnesota. Kerry is up by 1 in New Mexico and by 1 in PA. Nevada is tied, and Bush is only up by 3 now in Virginia, which hasn't been in play for months. And New Jersey, where Bush went just a week or so ago (who can keep track of the time), Kerry is up by 12.

The last Ohio poll (before this batch) had Bush up by 3, but there should be new ones coming Sunday. Kerry will be in Ohio Sunday and Monday (though in other states too.)

Also: Democracy Corps polled 250 voters Saturday morning, equal number of Dems and Rs. The horserace remained unchanged from pre-Osama: Kerry up by 1 pt. They asked specifically about the Osama tape: did it make you think Bush took his eye off the ball, or think positively about Bush's approach to terror. The first prop won by 10.