The Week That Will Be

The past week was a good one for the Kerry campaign. Kerry spoke in battleground states to huge crowds---30,000 in Minneapolis. He dominated the news with mostly positives, such as appearance of Christopher Reeve's wife and introduction by Caroline Kennedy. The news in Iraq, from the Pentagon and the CIA were all bad for Bush, as were headlines about further heights in oil prices and more problems with flu vaccine distribution.

The polls remained very close, though Kerry did consistently better in battleground states. But the numbers various pros and pundits point to are Bush's presidential approval rating, which remains below the magic 50%, and his poll numbers, which in most surveys don't get above the magic 50%; these are indicators for incumbents that historically point to losing.

Political junkies also note with some wonder that Bush has not campaigned much in Ohio, and that his plans for the final week are for a not very heavy schedule of appearances in mostly Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin. New Mexico is a close swing state, but it is also closest to Bush's Crawford TX ranch, where he is planning to spend two nights next week.

Going into the final week, Kerry looks strong in Ohio and PA, neither of which has Nader on the ballot. In Minnesota, the maverick former governor Jesse Ventura has endorsed Kerry.
In fact, Kerry looks so strong in virtually all the swing states that some pols have floated the idea that this election could be the reverse of 2000 in that Bush could win the popular vote and Kerry the electoral vote.

The week should start strong with Bill Clinton's first campaign appearance since his heart operation, in Philadelphia on Monday, an authentic news story that should get lots of coverage.

We get the sense that an undercurrent of movement began to flow for Kerry after the third debate, and it began to be perceptible this past week. It's an undercurrent of good crowds, of numbers within some of the more thorough surveys, of good news, of the look of the two campaigns, and of endorsements---not just newspapers, but individuals, including a growing number of Republicans. Plus the Pat Robertson flap last week which suggests to us (and to Kevin Phillips, we noted Friday) that there may be some dissatisfaction within the religious right with Bush.

The Republican efforts to suppress and intimidate voters not withstanding, there's also the sense that a huge turnout is expected on election day which will be very much for Kerry. If there is less that full enthusiasm in Bush's base, it could be decisive.

What will be interesting this week is the final round of polls, beginning Tuesday and ending next weekend. Right now you'd have to say that there appears to be reason that polls will show a movement towards Kerry, and that while such movement may signal a huge victory, a lack of movement either way, or even a slight uptick for Bush, won't be seen as definitive. Because of all those unknown voters out there, and the fact that the polls are more likely to find Bush voters than Kerry voters. So they may be measuring the top of Bush's numbers, but not Kerry's.

It's still possible there will be a final movement towards Bush, but why would there be? There's only a week left for the October Surprise to rear its ugly head. The Sinclair ploy largely didn't work, thanks to Internet activists. The news from Iraq continues to be bad. And several stories are brewing that are unfavorable for Bush, including a CIA report that might be leaked, new evidence about Bush's non-service in the National Guard and his drug use in those years.

While it's not time to take anything for granted, it is a time to feel positive. This will be a week to watch. While working to get out the vote on Tuesday.