V Minus 3

There are a number of election predictions emerging, many if not most foreseeing a Kerry victory. Even conservative Tucker Carlson is calling it for Kerry. A good analysis from an unbiased source (he's Canadian, and a political veteran) is here (the meat of it is towards the end):

CBC News - Viewpoint: Robert Vipond

Newsweek sees a trend towards Bush, though their polling data is questioned. Zogby's tracking poll has Kerry up a point for the first time in awhile, but at this point these little movements can be polling noise. The swing state polls continue to be close, either way, but Kerry leads in more of them than does Bush. So far the dynamics haven't seemed to change, and its turnout still.
That probably won't change.

Those poor guys at MSNBC. They do their best to become another Fox but every time they have a call-in poll, Bush loses. Right now Kerry is leading as the candidate who will do the more effective job in the war on terror, by 70% to 30%.

So far on this Saturday the TV news hasn't been dominated by the Osama tape, but the election is still the main story, followed by Marines killed in Iraq, a human rights group saying that they warned U.S. officials in Iraq about another huge missile and munitions cache left unguarded, but were ignored.

Although the Bushies are gloating over the Osama tape (one campaign official called it a "gift"), and some pundits are giving advantage to Bush, others and reporters are adding these factors 1. most voters have already made up their minds. 2. the tape cuts both ways, reminding people that Osama is still at large. CNN seems to be playing it pretty even-handedly. After showing Bushie officials fanning the flames by talking of new terrorist attacks (and saying that they don't think they're coming), they interviewed a terrorism expert on why on earth Osama is still not captured--and he confirms that the overwhelming evidence is that Osama was in fact at Tora Bora during that battle, just as Kerry says.

More later on these AmericanSamizat stations.