V Minus 7

Four new state polls show Kerry ahead in Florida. All state polls show Kerry ahead in Pennsylvania. The latest state poll shows Kerry ahead in Ohio.

Two analyses of electoral votes, one at Cal State, one at Princeton, predict a Kerry victory.

The big news at the beginning of this week is the huge missing cache of powerful ammo in Iraq, apparently looted over many months while U.S. forces were in Iraq. The Bushies are are trying to minimize this, even as they claim it happened before U.S. occupiers were there, while contrary evidence is coming in. This story looks likely to continue for the week.

The other big story is Chief Justice Rehnquist's cancer operation, which reporters are saying is more serious than the official Court press release indicates. This is likely to boost turnout for both sides in the election, as people focus on the importance of the Court.

A story that hasn't gotten much play but is a significant indicator for the election is the sudden drop in U.S. consumer confidence. Our guess is that the tipping point is gasoline prices, so high that they are forcing changes in consumer behavior.

So far the blunders this week have all been GOPers. While bombing and killing continues in Iraq, Dick Cheney has called Iraq "a great success story." Feeding into the willful blindness image as if the Kerry team had written it for him.

President Bush said on terrorism, that a safe America is "up in the air." It was apparently an awkward attempt to create more fear of electing Kerry, but it came off as defeatist.

The BBC has uncovered a memo that implicates Florida GOPers in a conspiracy to suppress the black vote, with a "caging list" and attempts at intimidation. The same tactics are planned for Ohio, where several Bush operatives under investigation or even indictment in another state for election fraud are running the show.