V Minus 4

Friday
Several news sites today are reproducing the last polls from the year 2000, especially the CNN tracking poll which gave G.W. Bush 52% to 39% for Gore, going into the final weekend. Questioning the reliability of polls is becoming a chorus, and pollsters seem to be ducking their heads by issuing tie votes whenever possible.

This pollster caution in substance and flair in show biz also characterizes the TV network plans for election coverage, but more on that later.

As if this election needed more drama, the five day weather forecasts for swing states are just as iffy as the polls. Most call for cloudy with a chance of rain. No clear skies. No prediction of rain. Undecided. A tie.

However, everybody talks about the weather and the polls, because they have to talk about something. And the latest state polls, issued in the past two days and covering this current week, show that Kerry has a lead in PA, Michigan, Florida, Oregon and Wisconsin. One poll has a tie in Florida, and different polls give Bush a lead in Wisconsin and Iowa (by 1%).

This year's Florida has been the subject of speculation. What state tips the balance? For a long time it was Ohio or Pennsylvania, and now the favorite is Wisconsin.

Here's the thing. There are a growing number of observers who either predict a Kerry victory or who say that the outcome may not be as close as it seems, which if you accept the trend lines amounts to the same thing. Everybody knows a record number of new voters have registered. Most accept that Democrats have at least a slight edge overall and in most states. The question is whether these folks will vote.

Some won't, because registering became easier in lots of places, the commitment of a minute or two at a shopping center or a concert. But the level of feeling is so high, especially among those who are afraid for the country if Bush is re-elected, and who are offended by what he has done with their goodwill post 9-11. Those people are going to vote, and Republicans aren't going to stop them.

The word coming out of Miami-Dade (where the Boss appears with Kerry tonight, after a rally in Madison, Wisc. yesterday that drew 80,000---and marched many of them to the polls immediately afterwards for early voting) is that Kerry could take a 100,000 vote victory just in that county.

Lots of people in Florida and elsewhere have lined up for hours to vote early (which may mean that most voters will have a faster trip to the booth when many more polling places open---but everyone should be prepared to stand in line for awhile. It should be a blissful wait.) Others will vote this weekend. But everything depends on total turnout, especially on Tuesday.

So before getting on the phone again to recruit volunteers in the swing states, we've got some errands, including picking up some sweets for the Haloweeners, with enough excess to get us through the weekend. And in that regard, there was yet another poll this week, of the most villainous villain in this year's movies. Somebody called Leatherface got second place, a character in some horror movie. First place? The scary star of Fahrenheit 9-11: George W. Bush.