Ohio continued

In Columbus and other Ohio cities, long lines remain, perhaps hours long. Democrats have sued successfully to get paper ballots for voters in line, so they won't be there until midnight. Apparently there were fewer voting machines than even in 2000 in some polling places, although everyone knew turnout would be higher.

North Carolina and South Carolina have been called for Bush, as expected, but both didn't come in as soon as expected. Arkansas at 8:30 is too early to call.

Barak Obamba has won the Senate in Illinois, as expected. Too close to call in PA, South Carolina, North Carolina Senate races, which is good for Dems.

The Big Ones (Part I)

Projected Kerry
all of New England except New Hampshire (too early), Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC.
Here are significant too close to call because they should all have been Bush wins by now: Virginia, North Carolina and Missouri.
Florida and Ohio are still not called. PA and New Hampshire are important states the networks are being very cautious about, saying it's "too early" to call, meaning not enough vote data.

Senate races are going great---many too close to call that should have been GOPer.

Other news of the hour
A potential problem with impounded absentee ballot in Philadephia, won't be resolved until tomorrow. Only significant if margin out of Philadelphia for Kerry is less than 350,000.

Exit polls in Ohio show younger voters largest proportion of new voters, heavily Kerry.
Young voters keeping North Carolina too close to call, voting 60% for Kerry.

NAACP in court to keep polls open in Detroit because of alleged voter intimidation.

At 7:30

Ohio and North Carolina too close to call, just after polls closed. This does not indicate the results will be extremely close in the end, because undoubtedly people are still voting.
Virginia is still too close to call.
South Carolina and West Virginia too early to call.

South Florida has begun counting votes. Central Florida polls still open.

First Calls

The predictables: Indiana, Georgia, Kentucky for Bush; Vermont for Kerry. The Big News: Virginia is too close to call. That's excellent for Kerry.

Towards a Steal-Proof Victory

Zogby is projecting a Kerry victory with over 300 electoral. NBC's right track/wrong track and Bush's approval ratings in exit polls are around 50%, not good for Bush.

Florida looks like it will be several hours past their 7:30 closing time before all polls are closed, but there may be some key areas reporting early because of heavy early voting.

Some of the turnout numbers are incredible. Iowa talking about 80% plus, precincts in Florida at 90%. Anecdotal evidence is high youth vote turnout.

First polls close in about five minutes.

An hour from the first poll closing, the exit polls continue to be very good for Kerry, leading in all the non-southwestern swing states, though his margin in Florida is very thin. So far the biggest surprise could be Kerry's margin of victory in Pennsylvania, but these polls are suggestive, not definitive.

There are still lines waiting to vote in the east and midwest, even in a non-swing state like Georgia.

The cable networks are saying that voting problems have been relatively few. But the Internet is very slow, so those reports to the big blogs are harder to come by at the moment.

Ohio continued

Reports of 3 hour lines in the rain in Columbus. Also look for this situation: if Bush wins Ohio by fewer than 200,000 votes, and the election hangs on Ohio, it won't be over. That's about how many provisional ballots are expected. It may also be the case if Kerry wins the state by fewer than 200,000 because GOPer appointed judges are clearly favoring GOP efforts to intimidate and suppress voters, and Ohio is unclear on how they will judge and count provisional ballots.

This is the most potentially serious situation to emerge on what has so far been a fairly smooth election day. The GOPer friendly federal appeals court just ruled that GOPer challengers in Ohio can use their lists to challenge voters, which seems to negate the "personal knowledge" rule. The outcome may be to increase the provisional ballots even more.

TURNOUT RECORD HIGH so far in Florida, PA, lines in Ohio, etc. One precinct in Philadelphia recorded more votes before noon than all election day in 2000. PA on track to challenge record turnout of 1960.

Anecdotal evidence is that turnout is high in Wisconsin, where same-day registration and voting is attracting young voters, absolutely uncounted in any polls.

The Internet is going a little nuts. Some of the big blogs are down and my last post was apparently lost. At the risk of repeating myself:
Analysis in Ohio, PA, Florida and Michigan show voting is especially high in African-American and Latino districts, Democratic precincts and precincts that went to Gore in 2000.

Polls close in Indiana and Virginia in about 2.5 hours, at 7 eastern. If Virginia reports slowly or goes to Kerry, that's real good because it's been expected for Bush.

Then Ohio and North Carolina are supposed to close at 7:30, though if there are still lines, the polls won't close until everyone in line has voted. If North Carolina is slow reporting or goes for Kerry-Edwards, and if Ohio is called for Kerry, it's time to get the champagne ready.

Then other eastern states close at 8, and the night takes shape.

It's half past noon in California. The early exit polls show Kerry ahead in all the battleground states except Iowa, where he is tied. The early exit polls in semi-battlegrounds of Colorado and Arizona favor Bush.

Ohio is turning out to be as down and dirty as predicted. A late ruling by a GOPer appointed federal judge this morning permits GOPer challengers to be in polling places, and reports of intimidation are already coming in. Also a number of voters who didn't receive their absentee ballots showed up at polling places and were denied ballots or provisional ballots. But just now a federal judge has ruled that they must be given provisional ballots, under federal election law. Provisional ballots will be checked for eligibility and counted but not for 11 days.

I voted a few minutes ago at the Sunset School in Arcata. Its educational to vote in a school, passing kids at desks, waiting for yellow school buses pulling up at the entrance, playing in the playground, their art decorating the hall outside the polling place. We're voting for their future.

There weren't any lines at my polling place but workers say lots of people have voted. Nationally, the traditional heavier Democratic voters will start going to the polls, starting right about now in the East. It's not the reliable rule it used to be, but Democrats often vote after work. So the 3:30 shift is coming to an end. And if this holds up, the early exit polls look especially interesting.

Early analysis shows turnout in Ohio, Florida, PA and Michigan is heaviest in African-American and Latino districts, in Democratic precincts and precincts that went to Gore in 2000.

Reporters on the scene in Ohio say lots of young people and new voters. Rain is crossing Ohio but so far voter turnout is high in Cleveland, Columbus and across the state.

Indiana, Kentucky and Virginia are the first to close polls in about 2.5 hours. Virginia may be the first harbinger: if it's close, or Kerry wins it, it suggests a big Kerry night. If it goes to Bush, that's expected.

Ohio and North Carolina close at 7:30, though if there still are lines, polls won't close until everyone in line has voted. Look at NC: if projections are slow or Kerry wins. If there's an early call for Kerry in Ohio, it's time to get the champagne ready to pop at 8.

Then at 8, other eastern states, and the returns take shape.

VK Day:
Big Voting Day Underway


Here's the ABC story on heavy turnouts at the beginning of the day. I note especially the turnouts in Pittsburgh, including one polling place where I used to vote:

ABC News: Lines of Voters Try to Cast Ballots Early

V minus .25

Saw Kerry in Cleveland on C-Span. Introduced by the Boss: "My fellow guitar player and the next President of the United States." Kerry's stump speech honed to perfection. Great crowd in the rain.

A word about blogging. I'm going to blog on election day because you never know who is out there. Even though I doubt more than a handful of people read this blog, there are one or two of you who are depending on it for some of the news on election day. But it's the big blogs that are already making a difference. Monday a lot of primarily elderly voters in Florida were getting phone calls telling them their polling places had changed, when of course they hadn't. One 70 year old woman happened to be a Kerry activist and blew the whistle. Soon Kerry hqs and other outfits knew about it, an appeal was put on the kos site to contact news media with the story, and by the 11 oclock news, TV stations in the affected cities were leading with it. A tried and true voter suppression tactic had run smack up against smart voters and the Internet. Specifically the blogger network.

So there's likely to be a lot of info of local interest on the blogs, lots of information will be perishable but important. The blogosphere has an entirely different take on the election than the networks and cable media. It's going to be fascinating to see who is closer to reality. For the record, kos is predicting a bigger Kerry victory than we are, and MyDD (one of the first and still most respected) is predicting a tighter Kerry victory. In his last appearances, Kerry got almost mystical. He sees a very big moment coming, as do these bloggers. The Get Out the Vote efforts are going to be crucial, and there's a lot of happy warriors out there. Nervous, but happy. And warriors.

From AmericanSamizat Election Headquarters

Early returns:
Gallup poll survey of early voters in Florida: Kerry 51% Bush 43%
Des Moines Register survey of early voters in Iowa: Kerry 52% Bush 41%

This represents approximately 1/3 of the 2000 Florida vote, and almost 30% of Iowa's.

Now that we've got simultaneous Internet and TV going, we're ready to make our official American Samizat election prediction:
Kerry 52% Bush 47%
Kerry wins with over 300 electoral votes.

Rain showers forecast for Ohio and PA tomorrow. Usually would be bad for turnout, especially Dems, but not this year. The more committed voters will vote, as Florida is showing right now. Though the Bush core is passionate, there is also a lot of dissatisfaction within his base, and moderate R's are torn. The anti-Bush voters have been waiting for this moment for months and years. They aren't going to let a little rain stop them.

The rest of the 99 reasons to vote for John Kerry

44. safeguard Social Security
45. No to drug companies and HMOs controlling health care.
46. Save Medicare without costly Bush tricks.
47. Actually promote healthy forests.
48. End Bush attacks on Clean Air Act.
49. Bobby Kennedy Jr. at EPA
50. Control real WMDs in Iran and North Korea
51. Join the world on nuclear weapons treaty
52. Reality-based politics
53. A President with intellectual curiosity
54. Bring back complete sentences
55. Create jobs, not corporate power.
56. A new FCC to control Big Media.
57. Bruce Springsteen plays at Inauguration.
58. Bill Clinton, Secretary-General of the United Nations
59. Save public health system.
60. Fund good education for every child
61. Help for middle class kids to go to college
62. a President whose ideas of the arts doesn't end with country music.
63. Against death penalty vs. Bush who approved execution of mentally retarded.
64. Pay as you go policy in new federal spending
65. Reads books not involving pet goats.
66. Former prosecutor
67. Former defense attorney who saved the life of an unjustly convicted man
68. war hero
69. anti-war hero
70. endorsed by Native American leaders
71. restore legitimacy to the presidency
72. he's no George Bush
73. smart daughters
74. Teresa
75. John Edwards
76. knows how many Internets there are
77. no bimbo eruptions
78. no more Roveing in the White House
79. retire Bush's brain
80. can think and talk at the same time.
81. end government by secrecy and intimidation
82. after school programs
83. Kerry learns from his mistakes, and his successes.
84. recognizes poverty and hunger as problems for public sector.
85. make public service fashionable again
86. real leadership, not just manipulating fear
87. redeems baby boomers and hope of the 60s
88. gives America a second chance in eyes of the world
89. a smart war on terror
90. capable of confronting the complexities of Iraq
91. has thought about technology and the future
92. brings hope
93. racial justice
94. we can be better
95. can't reward Bush for illegal and immoral war on Iraq
96. can't reward Bush for lying and incompetence
97. can't reward Bush for stupidity and cruelty
98. our long international nightmare could be over
99. a Fresh Start.

Election Centrals

What's the media up to on election day? Two words: caution and entertainment. The three broadcast networks and CNN have gone to great pains to announce they are going to be extra cautious about their projections, even though they will project using the same basic kinds of data: exit polls first, then key precinct returns, augmented by interviews. They aren't going to race to be the first to project winners in states (ha ha. That'll last about an hour.) Why the caution? The "mistakes" they made in 2000 by projecting Gore winning Florida, then Bush winning it and the election. Well, they ought to know that they didn't make a mistake in projecting Gore as the winner. The exit polls told them he did because a hell of a lot of people thought they HAD VOTED FOR GORE. The Palm Beach fiasco alone in which tens of thousands of Gore votes went to Pat Buchanan or were invalidated threw the election to the capable hands of Scalia and Thomas.

So if they aren't going to project winners and compete to be the first to do so, why are people going to watch them and not the other guy? Entertainment. Lots and lots of graphics and stuff. Like NBC with their vote projection map of America on the skating rink of Democracy Plaza aka Rockerfeller Center in NYC. Watch girls in short skating skirts and guys in buttclinging spandex assist reporters falling on their asses as America votes in the most important election of our lifetime.

Okay, a few more notes before American Samizat sets up its official election headquarters, which involves moving the laptop into a room with a television set:

84% of those in CNN poll said they intend to vote.

In New Mexico, 40% have already voted. On the Navajo reservation, 10,000 new registrants, and a big push to get out the vote. In a closely contested state, they could very well be the difference.

V minus 1

Curtis Gans of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate expects a record turnout for this election, in the range of 118 to 121 million. The election in 2000 was around 105 million. He expects this turnout to surpass the 58% in 1992, the first Clinton win.

The additional voters come from two sources: people who don't normally vote and people who are voting for the first time. In both groups are young people, who trend towards Kerry more than any other demographic group trends towards anybody.

I'll bet that's what Kerry will be thinking about as he takes the stage tonight with the Boss, Bruce Springstein.

Gans thinks the higher the turnout, the better it is for Kerry.

All the polls are tight, or hedging their bets. Poor Fox is showing Kerry ahead. Apparently Rush is having a heart attack on the air. CNN's Gallup poll and poll of polls show Bush with a statistically insignificant lead nationally. But a few things about their internals are interesting: both the missing munitions in Iraq AND the Osama tape are helping Kerry---his numbers on Iraq and the war on terror are up.

So far today, no big news as the election dominates. Suicide bomber in Israel is the only story with potential to move votes, but not many.

The state by state polls are still extremely close, when they aren't all over the place. Here are the good signs: there appears to be a Sunday trend towards Kerry, and late deciders breaking for Kerry. Bush can't crack an average of 48% in the polls, and his presidential favorability remains around 50% or below. We've said for weeks that if the polls are even by election day, Kerry has the advantage.

Why? Because early voters are standing in the rain in Florida today for four hours waiting to vote. Because thousands stood in the driving rain in Milwaukee to hear John Kerry. Because there are one million volunteers working tomorrow. Because as Zogby said, there are NO undecideds among young voters, which indicates they are all going to vote.

In fact, by the time all the polls open in Florida tomorrow, two million people in that state will have already voted. The total Florida vote in 2000 was six million. Early voting virtually everywhere trends to Kerry, though the margin varies from a little to a lot.

In Ohio, two federal judges have banned vote challengers from polling places, in a significant victory if it stands up to a GOPer appeal today. Gallup is giving Ohio to Kerry, though their poll today shows Ohio trending back to Bush. It's going to be trench warfare in Ohio, PA, Florida, the cities of Wisconsin, and in New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado.

Bloggers are indicating a little nervousness, with the available numbers stubbornly refusing to show big trends. Everyone is at least a little bothered by uncertainties over Ohio, PA, Iowa, Wisconsin especially. But a lot of this is last minute jitters. Sugar-induced optimism has become "cautious optimism." Ain't no such thing, boys and girls. Victory is one day away.

Kerry is spending the day in the Midwest, which seems to indicate that the campaign figures it has a chance to take all those states, and win the whole thing there. Kerry appears with the Boss in Cleveland, and after the Boss plays in Wisconsin. He looks and sounds strong and confident. No matter what happens, we can all be proud of our candidate, the race that he's run, and his innovative and dedicated supporters everywhere.

Blood brothers in the stormy night
With a vow to defend:
No retreat, baby, no surrender

Nader
Is Nader still a factor? I doubt it. I don't see him getting more than .5% of the vote in any state. But he might be, so anyone considering voting for him should read the Nader entry in this blog:


No More Mister Nice Blog

He makes a good case that Nader hasn't done much except screw up an election for the past several decades, and that John Kerry has done more to shake up the rabid right and actually advance progressive causes than Nader.

Same goes for David Cobb and the Greens. I accidentally debated Cobb once on Kerry's behalf (I thought I was just going to be making a pre-Dem primary pitch) and Cobb distorted Kerry's record. Nader's ideas and the Greens ideas and activism make important contributions to political life. But let's get real about where they belong in this fight. At least for a couple of more days.

The Last October Surprise

Since October has only about another hour in it, at least in the east, this may be the last October Surprise: the last Gallup Poll until the election has the popular vote tied (Bush has been up all month) and the electoral vote victory goes to...Kerry.

This is the poll that 1. weighs towards Republicans, 2. weighs for a relatively low turnout, 3. has other flaws according to people better at math than me. So if this is what Gallup says....the real outlyer poll at the moment seems to be Newsweek's. Everything else points to VK Day Tuesday.

More more of 99 reasons to vote for Kerry

26. No draft.

27. Kerry will control the deficit so future generations don’t have to keep paying for Bush’s extravagant mistakes.

28. Bush has no chance of uniting America. Kerry does, and he wants to.

29. Kerry has the best record in Congress on the environment.

30. Even Queen Elizabeth is worried about global warming. Bush isn’t. Kerry will rejoin the world in dealing with it.

31. Kerry’s 20 years of foreign policy experience and knowledge of world leaders and complex issues.

32. Kerry tested under fire, not thousands of miles from harm making brave speeches.

33. Kerry understands the consequences of political decisions on men and women in the military, and on civilians in the war zone.

34. Kerry will end shameful treatment of veterans.

35. Kerry will take care of military families and return their dignity.

36. Kerry understands the need for skills of peace.

37. Kerry understands we need real homeland security, not self-serving p.r.

38. No more stupid color code alerts.

39. No more no bid contracts for Halliburton.

40. Kerry will level with the American people.

41. Kerry understands the dangers and will work to end the growing gap between rich and poor, by helping the middle class.

42. Kerry supports family values by valuing families. Americans shouldn’t be working all the time and living in tents, or putting every cent into housing and nothing in the refrigerator. Stop the insanity.

43. Respect for differences in one America.

Ohio

Ohio may or may not turn out to be the crucial state on Tuesday, but it does look like it's going to be the biggest battlefield. GOPers are engaging in voter suppression efforts ranging from manipulating the legal system (or trying to), to cutting phone lines for Kerry phonebanks, to false information in flyers and phone calls to prevent minority voters from voting.

The media is on the story in general, but often falls for the GOPer tales of illegal registrations as a scandal. The one case of somebody allegedly paid in crack for filling out registration forms with fake names has become the welfare mom of the campaign. The only problem is that this kind of registration fraud has no impact on election day, since there are no live voters to go vote---Mickey Mouse or any of the other fake names just aren't going to show up to vote. But suppressing actual votes with false challenges, malacious misinformation, and intimidation are direct attacks on this basic right of voting.

But this time the GOPers aren't dealing with the unprepared, and certainly not with wimps. Every Kerry rally ends with this:
Blood brothers in the stormy night with a vow to defend
No retreat, baby, no surrender

More of the 99 reasons to vote for Kerry

16. To get rid of Ashcroft and have a new attorney general who believes in justice and the Bill of Rights

17. to repeal noxious anti-American elements of the Patriot Act

18. To close the shameful Guantanamo prison

19. Up to four Supreme Court appointments that will safeguard womens rights and all our rights for the foreseeable future, not the Scalia and Thomas clones Bush wants to appoint.

20. Kerry will end dependence on foreign oil with sustainable and renewable energy that creates millions of new jobs.

21. Health care for every American child.

22. Kerry will work for a sane health care system for everyone.

23. Kerry will end the outsourcing tax incentive.

24. Kerry will bring honest science and honest policy based on it.

25. Federal funding for stem cell research.

NFL Sunday and Election Tuesday

The one sports guys will be talking about tomorrow is the Green Bay Packers over the Washington football team. Since FDR's first term, the incumbent or incumbent's party wins reelection when the Washington team wins its last home game before the election. Today was that game and Washington lost. Omen: Kerry.

Some may find the opposite symbolism in the fact that New England's 21 game winning streak---the longest in NFL history---ended today. Omen against Kerry? Maybe, but trust me, the practical effect is good. Because it was the Pittsburgh Steelers who won at home over New England, in the most significant Steelers victory in years. Which is going to make people very upbeat in Pittsburgh. If New England had won, some sourpusses might have taken it out on Kerry on Tuesday. But this victory restores the natural order: the Steelers win, and Pittsburgh votes Democrat.

V minus 1.5

Zogby Sunday night tracking polls have Kerry ahead in Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. New Mexico is tied, Bush ahead in Ohio and Colorado. But not by much.

The Osama tape has dropped out of the top stories rotation on CNN Endless News. All they're saying about it now is that officials say there is no new attack warning.

On the ground for Kerry everyone is reporting passion, commitment and optimism. My own calls to people in Fla, Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc. are also inspiring: many people are volunteering, though many people are working hard just to get by, so they have no time, but they are still doing what they can, and many have already voted. Cousin Lemuel in Canada has helped register 10,000 voters and will be among those taking eligible voters to Michigan on Tuesday.

Another volunteer reports from E. Tampa, which is 90% African American. He got 879 voters to the early voting polls yesterday, who waited five hours to vote. They were harrassed and delayed in various ways, but with the help of volunteers they stayed until they voted. One was 90 years old. This is what will win Florida---the absolute determination of African American voters to make sure this time their votes count, and their votes are counted.

now hitting the blogs, soon to hit the TV news, a Newsweek story on the stands tomorrow indicating that Colin Powell believes the insurgents are winning in Iraq.

MSNBC - Hell to Pay

Hard to tell what gets through the noise, but Powell is still a name that means something with independents and moderate GOPers. It could get Iraq back at the top of the news, except of course on Fox which continues to try to whip up panic over the Osama tape.
It's one way Fox has for obscuring the fact that Bush has lost 7 points in its poll in the past two weeks.

V Minus 2

To be fair, Newsweek and ABC are saying the last minute tilt is towards Bush. Josh Marshall thinks the media is being gamed again by the Rove machine, which did precisely the same thing in 2000, when polls showed Bush ahead by several points (as many as 12). We haven't seen much evidence of this tilt. Most of the national tracking polls have moved only slightly, and usually in Kerry's direction. The Osama effect seems to be subtle if even present. As of today, Kerry maintains a one point lead in the Washington Post poll, has moved up to a 2 pt lead in Fox, and is tied in Zogby and the Fox three-way.

If you go with the theory that Bush has to be over 50 percent at this point, he's toast. If you believe that turnout will determine the election, especially by new voters, ditto. And if you look at state polls, the same. Here's another indication quoted by Electablog though not sourced:
37% of Kerry voters said this is the most important election of their lifetime, while only 27% of Bush supporter said the same.

There is a new Ohio poll out showing a tie. Michael Moore has organized some 1200 videographers to tape at polling places in Ohio, and an effort to do the same in Wisconsin is being mounted. These two states along with Florida seem the prime but not the only targets for GOPer voter suppression and intimidation, including challenges.

The final tally on newspaper endorsements show 42 papers that endorsed Bush in 2000 have switched to endorsing Kerry, while 15 went neutral. Only 6 switched from Gore to Bush.

Happy Halloween (or in Lake Woebegon, where fundamentalist protestors got the name changed, Happy Fall Festival. Garrison says the spirit of Halloween is that it's better for good people to dress up and pretend to be evil, than evil people to dress up and pretend to be good.)

The official AmericanSamizat Halloween chant of 2004 (picked up from somewhere on the blogosphere):
Bush is scary
Vote for Kerry

V minus 2.5
actually less than that in most of the country but...

The bad news is continued voter suppression efforts. In Wisconsin the R party is demanding that EVERY voter be required to show an ID or they will challenge EVERY voter. It's in the courts. And nationally, the Ashcroft Justice department has gone to several state courts with the same claim---that voters can't sue to restore voting rights, only Ashcroft can! Here's the LA Times story:
Bush Seeks Limit to Suits Over Voting Rights

The good news: the latest state polls! Kerry is up by 3pts in New Hampshire, 3 pts. in Iowa and by 8 points in Minnesota. Kerry is up by 1 in New Mexico and by 1 in PA. Nevada is tied, and Bush is only up by 3 now in Virginia, which hasn't been in play for months. And New Jersey, where Bush went just a week or so ago (who can keep track of the time), Kerry is up by 12.

The last Ohio poll (before this batch) had Bush up by 3, but there should be new ones coming Sunday. Kerry will be in Ohio Sunday and Monday (though in other states too.)

Also: Democracy Corps polled 250 voters Saturday morning, equal number of Dems and Rs. The horserace remained unchanged from pre-Osama: Kerry up by 1 pt. They asked specifically about the Osama tape: did it make you think Bush took his eye off the ball, or think positively about Bush's approach to terror. The first prop won by 10.

Why Some People Vote for Bush

It's difficult to understand why anyone would vote for Bush, given his record. It's been the most disastrous presidency in our lifetime, characterized by deceit, incompetence and extremism. It has resulted in untold suffering at home, and death and more suffering abroad.

Bill Moyers' Now on Friday catalogued the ideologically driven deceit leading up to the war in Iraq, with the help of a man who had been an intelligence expert in the Bush state department, a career expert named Thielmann. His commentary on what American intelligence knew and was analyzing totally devastates the Bush case. (We've stolen from this segment for some of our 99 reasons.)

But he said something quite profound that goes to the heart of American support for Bush. He called it the psychological element: "a desire to believe the President of the United States. The realization that the President of the U.S. would knowingly distort issues, or even negligently misinform them on issues that will result in the deaths of American sons and daughters, is so monstrous, that most good and decent and patriotic Americans can't believe that. They don't want to believe that. That's just too awful to contemplate, that the President would do that to them."


Speaking of psychology, here is C.G. Jung's description of an inflated consciousness:
"...always egocentric and conscious of nothing but its own presence. It is incapable of learning from the past, incapable of understanding contemporary events, and incapable of drawing the right conclusions about the future. It is hypnotized by itself and therefore cannot be argued with. It inevitably dooms itself to calamities that must strike it dead."

99 Reasons to Vote for Kerry cont.

3. Osama still at large is Bush failure. Kerry has the judgment and experience to take advantage of opportunities, like Tora Bora, to effectively fight terrorists.

4. A fresh start in Iraq now. Chaos and killing accelerate, while Cheney calls Iraq "a remarkable success story."

5. Fresh start in the world, after Bush lies ruin U.S. credibility. "Once you've been misled on an issue, you're very reluctant to give [the U.S.] the benefit of the doubt." Former intelligence official Thielmann. What are those lies?

6. "There is no doubt that Saddam Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction. There is no doubt that he is now amassing them to use against our friends, our allies and against us."-Cheney

7. " We know that [Iraq] is actively pursuing a nuclear weapon....No terrorist state poses a greater threat to us than Iraq."
--Cheney

8. Of the aluminum tubes in Iraq, Condi Rice said, they were "only suited for nuclear weapons." Bush stated the same, though state department, intelligence and energy department experts agreed the opposite.

9. When UN atomic energy experts went to Iraq and examined the tubes, they announced there was no evidence they were for nuclear program. Their findings were ignored by Bushies.

10. UN arms inspectors in Iraq, given extraordinary access by Saddam Hussein, find no evidence of WMD. They are ignored and the U.S. invades.

11.On Iraq: "Facing clear evidence of peril, we cannot wait for the first proof---the smoking gun that can come in the form of a mushroom cloud." GW Bush. At the same time as state department experts were saying that Iraq did not pose an imminent security threat to the U.S. It did not pose the same magnitude of threat of North Korea.

12. Kerry will replace Condi Rice, who is either incompetent, irresponsible or not telling the truth---or all three.

13. Kerry will replace Colin Powell, whose "credibility has been spent."

14. Kerry will replace Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney, chief architects of the disastrous mistakes in Iraq: the war in the first place, the failures once there, and the attempts to cover it all up.

15. Bush is damaged goods, and re-elected, he will be ineffective in the world. America needs a fresh start. People don't like to criticize the person in power, or the leader in time of war. But this campaign has revealed so much disenchantment with Bush, not just from Democrats but from moderate Republicans, leaders of other nations, diplomats, career government experts, economists, scientists, recent U.S. military leaders, and even fiscal conservatives and libertarian Republicans, that Bush can never unite the country, or adequately represent the country to the world.

ELECTION PROTECTION CARD

You can find it at moveonpac.org. For some reason I can't get a link to the exact page there, but a link to it is on the opening page of the site.

MoveOn PAC

The card is printable, so you can take it with you to the polls. It's got numbers to call in various states if you're having a problem voting or you see some problem.

V Minus 3

There are a number of election predictions emerging, many if not most foreseeing a Kerry victory. Even conservative Tucker Carlson is calling it for Kerry. A good analysis from an unbiased source (he's Canadian, and a political veteran) is here (the meat of it is towards the end):

CBC News - Viewpoint: Robert Vipond

Newsweek sees a trend towards Bush, though their polling data is questioned. Zogby's tracking poll has Kerry up a point for the first time in awhile, but at this point these little movements can be polling noise. The swing state polls continue to be close, either way, but Kerry leads in more of them than does Bush. So far the dynamics haven't seemed to change, and its turnout still.
That probably won't change.

Those poor guys at MSNBC. They do their best to become another Fox but every time they have a call-in poll, Bush loses. Right now Kerry is leading as the candidate who will do the more effective job in the war on terror, by 70% to 30%.

So far on this Saturday the TV news hasn't been dominated by the Osama tape, but the election is still the main story, followed by Marines killed in Iraq, a human rights group saying that they warned U.S. officials in Iraq about another huge missile and munitions cache left unguarded, but were ignored.

Although the Bushies are gloating over the Osama tape (one campaign official called it a "gift"), and some pundits are giving advantage to Bush, others and reporters are adding these factors 1. most voters have already made up their minds. 2. the tape cuts both ways, reminding people that Osama is still at large. CNN seems to be playing it pretty even-handedly. After showing Bushie officials fanning the flames by talking of new terrorist attacks (and saying that they don't think they're coming), they interviewed a terrorism expert on why on earth Osama is still not captured--and he confirms that the overwhelming evidence is that Osama was in fact at Tora Bora during that battle, just as Kerry says.

More later on these AmericanSamizat stations.

99 Reasons to Vote for Kerry

Let's see if we can do this by election day.

Reason #1: Not voting for Kerry is a vote for Bush. This is the premise of many reasons to come, a meta-reason. If you stay home, you're playing into Bush's hands, because suppression of the vote favors his re-election. And I hope we've all learned the Nader lesson. Even here in California, it's important to vote for Kerry. The polls show Kerry is farther ahead in Maryland than he is in California.

Reason #2 You hope to take a trip out of the country in the next four years. The New York Times had an item about a reporter covering a conference in Italy buying postcards, and asking to buy stamps to send them to America. The man behind the counter said one word, or expletive: Boosh. And turned his back, refusing to sell him anything. Everybody who has been to Europe or Australia or even Canada in the past couple of years has similar stories. I've noticed that in those interviews with "swing" voters, it often comes up: people who have been abroad have a whole new perspective on what the U.S. is doing, and how it is perceived.

The Osama Effect

On Friday before the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, a tape of Osama bin Laden talking mostly to Americans is rippling across the mediascape. What does it mean?

First, and this is a wild guess, if not a wild charge, it may be Act I in the October/November Surprise. The immediate effect of Osama's appearance is to prove that he is still alive. The tone of the message is relatively subdued, and one is tempted to say a self-elegy. Could Osama know that his capture or killing is imminent, and he has issued this last message? Are we going to wake up to that news on Monday? Or is it the accidental setup to a major attack on Faludja over the weekend or on Monday?

The political content of the Osama message is that American security is not up to Kerry or Bush or al Qeda but the American people, presumably meaning the American policy in the Middle East. But Osama does single out Bush for specific insult, as if he'd seen the scene in Michael Moore's film of Bush sitting stunned in front of schoolchildren after he's learned of the Twin Towers attacks.

Bush's first reaction to the tape was remarkably statesmanlike, Kerry's was also statesmanlike and nonpartisan while rather skillfully boosting his own credentials as a terrorist fight. However in a very short time, everybody--including Bush and Kerry--- were trading charges and accusations again.

So far we've seen two prominent blogs comment, kos and Marshall's Talking Points, and they both caution that the tape's release may not be a major factor in the election, especially to Bush's advantage. That's apparently the opinion of some TV talking heads, though that caution could change should one side or another get control of the spin over the weekend.

Maybe it's wishful thinking but absent Act II, we agree. That bin Laden is hale and hearty actually supports Kerry's arguments that Bush took his eye off the war on bin Laden to go after Saddam and in the process, has provided more new terrorists and ammunition than bin Laden had ever dreamed of.

The test of the tape's effect will be if it is dominating the news on Monday. It's the weekend, with Halloween in it. Foremost on many people's minds is to remember to set the clock back an hour Sunday night. But Monday will be the last time a lot of people will focus on the news the media is reporting.

It is also so late in a year when the undecideds are few that there aren’t too many votes to influence. Some soft supporters of one candidate may switch, of course, based on what they are most afraid of and who they feel will protect them. Though Bush does much better on terrorism in polls of those people being polled, the other major stories of the week---the missing munitions, the favoritism to Halliburton—--fall into line with Osama’s sudden reappearance in Kerry’s argument that Bush, however resolute, is resolutely screwing up with tragic results, likely to get worse. How this tape affects your feelings depends on where your thinking is. To us, it’s a strong argument for Kerry. It will be for others, too. It may do some damage in skewing the momentum Kerry had been building among undecideds, splitting some folks off. But it is unlikely to affect the new voters and the Remember the Chads disenfranchised who are the army of the future.

Although the impact of the tape may be to raise fears of a new attack, its appearance and message that Americans can guarantee their own security by not intervening in the Middle East, seems to suggest that no attack is imminent, especially aimed at disrupting the election, if anyone was afraid of that any longer.

But its specific impact won't be known until after the election, if ever. The polls that will come out this weekend won't measure it, and polls taken on weekends are even less reliable than others.

V Minus 4

Friday
Several news sites today are reproducing the last polls from the year 2000, especially the CNN tracking poll which gave G.W. Bush 52% to 39% for Gore, going into the final weekend. Questioning the reliability of polls is becoming a chorus, and pollsters seem to be ducking their heads by issuing tie votes whenever possible.

This pollster caution in substance and flair in show biz also characterizes the TV network plans for election coverage, but more on that later.

As if this election needed more drama, the five day weather forecasts for swing states are just as iffy as the polls. Most call for cloudy with a chance of rain. No clear skies. No prediction of rain. Undecided. A tie.

However, everybody talks about the weather and the polls, because they have to talk about something. And the latest state polls, issued in the past two days and covering this current week, show that Kerry has a lead in PA, Michigan, Florida, Oregon and Wisconsin. One poll has a tie in Florida, and different polls give Bush a lead in Wisconsin and Iowa (by 1%).

This year's Florida has been the subject of speculation. What state tips the balance? For a long time it was Ohio or Pennsylvania, and now the favorite is Wisconsin.

Here's the thing. There are a growing number of observers who either predict a Kerry victory or who say that the outcome may not be as close as it seems, which if you accept the trend lines amounts to the same thing. Everybody knows a record number of new voters have registered. Most accept that Democrats have at least a slight edge overall and in most states. The question is whether these folks will vote.

Some won't, because registering became easier in lots of places, the commitment of a minute or two at a shopping center or a concert. But the level of feeling is so high, especially among those who are afraid for the country if Bush is re-elected, and who are offended by what he has done with their goodwill post 9-11. Those people are going to vote, and Republicans aren't going to stop them.

The word coming out of Miami-Dade (where the Boss appears with Kerry tonight, after a rally in Madison, Wisc. yesterday that drew 80,000---and marched many of them to the polls immediately afterwards for early voting) is that Kerry could take a 100,000 vote victory just in that county.

Lots of people in Florida and elsewhere have lined up for hours to vote early (which may mean that most voters will have a faster trip to the booth when many more polling places open---but everyone should be prepared to stand in line for awhile. It should be a blissful wait.) Others will vote this weekend. But everything depends on total turnout, especially on Tuesday.

So before getting on the phone again to recruit volunteers in the swing states, we've got some errands, including picking up some sweets for the Haloweeners, with enough excess to get us through the weekend. And in that regard, there was yet another poll this week, of the most villainous villain in this year's movies. Somebody called Leatherface got second place, a character in some horror movie. First place? The scary star of Fahrenheit 9-11: George W. Bush.

mr. right gets it wrong?

Bob Novak, the elder "Mr. Right" on Crossfire, boasted Thursday that pollster John Zogby, who came the closest to getting 2000 right, had changed his mind from April (when he thought Kerry would win) and now predicted a Bush win. Hours later, on "The Daily Show," Zogby himself appeared and when asked his prediction, said quickly and succinctly, "Kerry."

J. Stewart made sure he wasn't kidding and wasn't saying something else "on other shows."
No, Zogby thinks Bush's numbers are too low, and undecideds are likely to break for Kerry. As noted previously, the Pew scholars have concluded that so far the undecided have in fact been breaking more for Kerry.

So besides Bush, Cheney and Gulliani, Mr. Right has some explaining to do Friday.

What It Means

David Kay, U.S. arms inspector, confirmed to Aaron Brown that the Twin Cities video shows that U.S. troops found the sealed, high-powered explosives now missing. He said that the presence of those explosives had been known since 1991, and it was one of the most important sites in Iraq. He finds it incredible that U.S. forces didn't know what they were seeing, but since they knew at least they were seeing explosive powder of some kind, that the facility wasn't secured. Bush has been attacking Kerry for wild charges and not knowing the facts, but this fact is certainly not contradicted by the video: the Bush league team ordered troops to guard the oil ministry, but not huge caches of dangerous explosives.

If that isn't bad enough, the truly frightening comment Kay made was this: the munitions present in Iraq, most in the hands of insurgents, is equal to two-thirds of the non-nuclear munitions possessed by the U.S. armed forces. Not just in Iraq. Everywhere.

On a related issue, the FBI has opened a CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION into favoritism in granting a no-bid contract to a subsidiary of Halliburton for Iraq. According to one report, a Defense Department whistleblower has an email which shows White House involvement, specifically the office of vice president Cheney. The investigation led Thursday's Hardball, with Chris Matthews opining that this has the potential to crystallize the Democratic charges of Bush and Republican favoritism to huge corporations.

Apart from the name of the Iraqi prison, there has been no more potent word this year than Halliburton.

Pundits argue whether there are any undecideds left, or whether they are reachable on issues. But it's hard to see how Bush is helped by headlines clearly demonstrating incompetence that has led to Americans being killed and crippled, and that enriched a partisan corporation in a war that a new Johns Hopkins estimate says killed 100,000 Iraqi civilians, many of them children. Perhaps this won't change minds, but only further sicken hearts. Tonight we mourn those hundred thousands, and our thousands. Tomorrow we resolve to stop these people with our ballots before they do even more harm.

FBI INVESTIGATING HALLIBURTON!

USATODAY.com - FBI investigating how Halliburton got Bush administration contracts

If you don't hear about this on the TV news tonight, call them up and ask why not!

No Doubt Now

kos has photos from the Twin Cities TV station proving the munitions were under seal at the Iraqi dump when U.S. troops arrived and looked at them. Scroll down the kos page to see:

Daily Kos :: Political Analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation.

Additionally, the NY Times is reporting Iraqi sources saying that the explosives were looted during the U.S. occupation.

V Minus 5


The missing explosives in Iraq continues to be an explosive issue in America. President Bush's first comment on it has furnished the Kerry campaign with a potentially damaging ad line: "For a political candidate to jump to conclusions without knowing the facts is not a person you want as Commander in Chief." Today Rudy Guliani blamed failure to find the munitions on the troops. A Minnesota TV station believes it has footage of American troops in fact finding the munitions which have since disappeared.

The polls aren't showing much movement, and they continue to be all over the place. However, at least one poll within the past two days gives Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, PA, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan to Kerry. But other polls show Bush slightly ahead in several of those states. Chuck Todd of the Hotline now has 10 disputed states, and believes the pollsters don't have a handle on the race and are too unsure of their numbers to be credible. Polls weigh for turnout, and nobody knows how high the turnout will be.

One indication of turnout is Florida, where thousands have already voted. A poll of those voters shows Kerry leading by 17 points, but the size of the poll makes the margin questionable.

While Zogby tracking poll continues to show Bush ahead nationally, the Economist is one of several new polls giving Kerry a 49% to 46% edge. The Economist has also endorsed Kerry; the magazine endorsed Bush in 2000.

The Pew Research Center issued a report saying that Kerry has picked up more undecided voters in the past month than Bush, and the overwhelming factor was his performance in the debates. This contrasts with CNN etc. who keep saying that the race is back to where it was before the debates.

To be fair to the cable stations, the other night CNN's Aaron Brown responded to Dick Cheney's comment that Iraq is a "remarkable success story" with a blistering recap of the situation and a rebuke. On MsNBC, the voice of reason continues to be the voice of Reagan---Ron Reagan---who said yesterday that the importance of the missing explosives in Iraq isn't whether they were there after U.S. troops arrived, but that the Bushies hadn't ordered the troops to look for them. And he characterized Bush's misstatements of Kerry's words as "lying."

The strongest hope for Kerry supporters continues to be turnout and the Get Out the Vote Effort. Several of the lefty blogs are showering praise on the professionalism of the combined effort of traditional Democratic party and union efforts and the new organizations, all working together under the rubric of America Votes.

On the ground organization suggests not only that all of the swing states are in play, but that some generally given to Bush---Arizona in particular---are also in play.

The mainstream media has picked up the story of attempts to prevent or discourage voters, which has had some good effects in shining some light on Ohio, for instance. There the state's newspapers had little to say about GOPer efforts to subvert voting rights until the national media ran with the story. However, the prospect of possible conflict on voting day, resulting in challenges and at the very least, long lines, could in itself discourage voting. Which makes election day get out the vote efforts all the more important.

And activists and reporters are already looking at 7 day weather forecasts for Tuesday. In a normal year, the weather could decide a close race. This doesn't appear to be a normal year.

Not when the Boston Red Sox win the World Series, during a full lunar eclipse. Not only is Boston John Kerry's hometown team, but the St. Louis Cardinal ownership has strong ties to Bush, having formerly owned the Texas Rangers when Bush was their front man.

T-Shirt of the Day: Drop Bush, Not Bombs.
Button of the Day: Bring Back Complete Sentences. Vote Kerry-Edwards.

Twelve Ways Bushies trying to steal the Ohio vote:

Twelve Ways Bush is Now Stealing the Ohio Vote

V Minus 6

The missing explosives story continues to stay in the news, with evidence accumulating that the explosives were lost after American troops were there and victory was declared. Now the story begins to emerge that Bush plans to ask for an additional $70 billion to pay for Iraq and Afghanistan, and an additional 20,000 troops.

Also making news, the Iraqi government accusing U.S. of gross negligence in deaths of Iraqi national guard. Under the radar but significant: North Korea has refused to rejoin nuclear talks because of the U.S. hostile attitude.

Campaign news: Kevin Drum via kos reports that in a survey by Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who factors in minority turnout based on 2000 exit polls, plus census changes since 2000, the race in 12 battleground states goes from a tie to Kerry by more than five points. Fabrizio concludes that unless the GOPers successfully suppress the minority vote, Bush is doomed.

Turnout is going to be a key indicator, with high turnout favoring Kerry. But we don’t have to wait for election day to catch the drift: in early voting states, turnout is tremendous. Hundreds of thousands have already voted in Florida, despite sporadically successful efforts to destroy Democratic registrations and lose tens of thousands of absentee ballots in Broward County.
Early voting is also high in Nevada.

The Zogby national tracking poll, which showed Bush up several points, is closer to even.
"Today was a big day for Kerry," pollster John Zogby said.
Kerry has consolidated his base support just as Bush did early in the race, taking a 2-to-1 lead among Hispanics, 90 percent of blacks, 84 percent of Democrats, 55 percent of union voters and 65 percent of singles. Only 4 percent of likely voters remain undecided.

CBS poll has Kerry up 4 points in Florida, after ordering a revision of a poll which showed Kerry up 8 to 9 points.

If you're watching a lot of cable news, you're not getting the impression that we're building towards a Kerry victory, until you notice how nervous the anchors and reporters are. They've built their entire makeovers on attracting the Fox audience, and now they're also fighting reality. Look also at the affect of Bush and Cheney vs. that of Kerry and Edwards on the campaign trail, and you know the GOPers are worried, the Dems are excited.

We’ve been talking personally with people in battleground states, and there is high interest among Kerry supporters in helping get out the vote on election day. The passions are cresting.

We need minority voters to show the kind of courage we saw in the Civil Rights movement, to fight for their rights to vote. We need the energy of young people and the dedication of the rest of us to make sure registered voters, especially newly registered voters, get to the polls.

Blood brothers in the stormy night with a vow to defend
No retreat, baby, no surrender.

V Minus 7

Four new state polls show Kerry ahead in Florida. All state polls show Kerry ahead in Pennsylvania. The latest state poll shows Kerry ahead in Ohio.

Two analyses of electoral votes, one at Cal State, one at Princeton, predict a Kerry victory.

The big news at the beginning of this week is the huge missing cache of powerful ammo in Iraq, apparently looted over many months while U.S. forces were in Iraq. The Bushies are are trying to minimize this, even as they claim it happened before U.S. occupiers were there, while contrary evidence is coming in. This story looks likely to continue for the week.

The other big story is Chief Justice Rehnquist's cancer operation, which reporters are saying is more serious than the official Court press release indicates. This is likely to boost turnout for both sides in the election, as people focus on the importance of the Court.

A story that hasn't gotten much play but is a significant indicator for the election is the sudden drop in U.S. consumer confidence. Our guess is that the tipping point is gasoline prices, so high that they are forcing changes in consumer behavior.

So far the blunders this week have all been GOPers. While bombing and killing continues in Iraq, Dick Cheney has called Iraq "a great success story." Feeding into the willful blindness image as if the Kerry team had written it for him.

President Bush said on terrorism, that a safe America is "up in the air." It was apparently an awkward attempt to create more fear of electing Kerry, but it came off as defeatist.

The BBC has uncovered a memo that implicates Florida GOPers in a conspiracy to suppress the black vote, with a "caging list" and attempts at intimidation. The same tactics are planned for Ohio, where several Bush operatives under investigation or even indictment in another state for election fraud are running the show.

V minus 8

The Big Dog is back.

Bill Clinton wowed a tremendous crowd in Philadelphia, estimated at between 80,000 and 100,000 . He'll be in Florida tonight and tomorrow, and has scheduled appearances for Kerry in New Mexico, Nevada and Arkansas.

In the latest state polls as we start the week, Arkansas has moved towards Kerry and is tied. Florida and Wisconsin are tied. Kerry has moved slightly ahead in New Mexico. The Zogby poll has Kerry ahead in Colorado but slightly behind in New Mexico.

Several newspaper endorsements in Florida went to Kerry, including the Orlando Sentinel, one of a number of newspapers that endorsed Bush last time but Kerry this time. The preponderance of editorial support in Florida is for Kerry, and some papers have declined to endorse at all, when they endorsed Bush last time.

Kerry is ahead in Ohio, has increased his lead in PA, has moved ahead again in Michigan, and has a solid lead in New Hamphshire.

The Columbus, Ohio paper endorsed Bush, reportedly pitting the editorial staff (for Kerry) against the publisher (a Bush supporter.) That same conflict was reported at the Cleveland Plain Dealer, with the result that their endorsement was postponed.

Bush is still slightly ahead in Iowa, Nevada and Minnesota (though Zogby has Kerry ahead in MN), but his lead has declined.

Nationally in the less important head to head polls, the usually GOPer CNN/Gallup has Bush ahead, as does the more reliable Zogby tracking poll, but the Rasmussen tracking poll puts Kerry ahead by 2 points among likely voters, tracking a steady decline in Bush's numbers last week. The Washington Post poll also has Kerry ahead, with 55% saying the Bush administration is leading the country in the wrong direction.

The Power of A Fresh Start

"I could see this mood in the nods of agreement in an airport lounge recently as a television news clip showed Kerry saying the country needs “a fresh start.” This could be the most powerful phrase in Kerry’s arsenal during the closing days."
Craig Crawford, Congressional Quarterly Columnist
predicting a Kerry victory

CQ.com

Faith

We never really could figure out what Christianity has to do with right wing Republican politics. In particular we can’t get our heads around the attacks on “bleeding-heart liberals.” Because the bleeding heart they are talking about is Jesus Christ’s. The heart of Jesus bleeds for the poor, the hungry, the sick and injured, the oppressed, the weakened old and the helpless children. Yet these are the people that the rabid right disdains, and the people who try to help them are the ones they insult with alarming venom, cynicism and hate.

In any case, we don’t believe religious faith should be an issue. Lots of Kerry supporters have strong religious faith. Kerry is apparently one of them. But Kerry talks about faith accompanied by works, which is an emphasis with a long history within the Catholic Church, that has led to many orders of monks and nuns being created, and many saints, as well as activists nearer to our time who may someday be proclaimed as saints. Like that bleeding heart liberal, Mother Theresa.

Of course, religion seems to enter in with issues like gay marriage and abortion. Yet people of faith, people who belong to organized Christian churches and may even be clergy, disagree on the politics of these issues. It’s true that in the history of the West some of the most violent disagreements, leading to individual deaths and even warfare, have been disagreements over doctrinal interpretations or political entanglements, within Christianity.

There is nothing that John Kerry would do that limits the ability of any person to make a moral choice based on their own conscience. There is nothing that John Kerry would do that prevents anyone from living their faith. This reflects a view about faith and the American political system. It also reflects a faith.

But when people talk about faith in this election, they can mean other things. There is the question of whether George Bush himself believes, as do some of his supporters, that he is an instrument of God to bring about the Apocalypse, the Rapture and the Last Judgment. Or if he believes he is a contemporary Crusader, at war with Islam.

There is the further question of whether people are relying too strongly on their faith in George Bush, either for religious reasons, or because they turned to him in a traumatic moment, and they have invested him with a faith that overrides perception of reality.

That question was raised in particular this past week by a study by the Center for Policy Attitudes and Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland. It was conducted in September and October of this year, well after the 9-11 report (finding no real connection between Saddam and 9-11 or al Qaeda) and several reports confirming that there were no Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq at the time that Bush started the war, nor were there any ongoing or even recent WMD programs.

The survey asked the same questions of people who identified themselves as Bush supporters and Kerry supporters. But the questions weren’t on their opinions; they were on facts.

Here’s what the Bush supporters said:
72% said that Iraq had WMDs
75% that Iraq had given substantial support to al Qaeda
55% that this was the conclusion of the 9-11 commission

Yet 58% said the U.S. should not have gone to war if Iraq had no WMD.

Only 31% realize that the rest of the world was largely against the Iraq invasion.
Just 9% believe that people in other countries favor Kerry in the election. In fact, a widely reported recent survey showed that Kerry is favored in 30 of 35 major countries, and in population total by 2 to 1.

But their faith in Bush went beyond what Bush had claimed was true and isn’t, or didn’t turn out to be. They believed Bush had positions on issues contrary to his actual ones.

69% said Bush supports the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
72% that Bush supports the treaty banning land mines.
57% that Bush supports the Kyoto treaty on global warming
74% that Bush favors including labor and environmental standards in trade agreements.

Bush is on the record as being against all these. There are a couple of possible conclusions. One is that faith in Bush alone holds sway, and since these voters obviously favor these things themselves (since being Bush supporters they wouldn’t say he had positions they didn’t agree with), they naturally think he feels the same way. Maybe because they just like him, and don’t follow the news, or maybe because they are going on faith.

Another is a little more nuanced: that faith in Bush predisposes them to accept the public relations image the Bush administration has tried hard to project; for example, by naming a law that allows more pollution, Clean Skies, or by holding a White House press conference to announce funds to fight AIDs in Africa that they immediately withdraw, but quietly.

This would also predispose them to believe the untruths and the vicious lies that the Bush administration tells regularly. This in some ways is the most understandable. Because every American would like to have faith in their leaders. It’s the only way that we as a country can solve our common problems, and work towards a better future. But having faith in lies does no one any good, except perhaps the liars. Yet even they have to answer for their souls.

There is also a more cynical possibility: that people don’t care if Bush is telling the truth, as long as he gives them a good feeling. If this is so, it’s not clear just what they have faith in. Unless they believe Bush is sent from God and whatever he does must be right. Otherwise, it becomes a question of whether they have faith in the idea of the truth. This is what scares people about Bush and his supporters: that they aren’t “reality-based.” They don’t care what happens to people in this world, because their faith is fixed on another world, and on the elect, the people who believe exactly what they believe.

People of faith should not let faith become identified with that point of view. We prefer keeping faith with our children and the generations to come, as well as keeping faith with the people we depend on every day, our fellow human beings, and the life of this planet that sustains us, and of which we are a small part. In the end we find religious zealotry and its associated politics repugnant not only for ignoring justice and charity, but for its ungodly pride, its lack of humility.

The Week That Will Be

The past week was a good one for the Kerry campaign. Kerry spoke in battleground states to huge crowds---30,000 in Minneapolis. He dominated the news with mostly positives, such as appearance of Christopher Reeve's wife and introduction by Caroline Kennedy. The news in Iraq, from the Pentagon and the CIA were all bad for Bush, as were headlines about further heights in oil prices and more problems with flu vaccine distribution.

The polls remained very close, though Kerry did consistently better in battleground states. But the numbers various pros and pundits point to are Bush's presidential approval rating, which remains below the magic 50%, and his poll numbers, which in most surveys don't get above the magic 50%; these are indicators for incumbents that historically point to losing.

Political junkies also note with some wonder that Bush has not campaigned much in Ohio, and that his plans for the final week are for a not very heavy schedule of appearances in mostly Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin. New Mexico is a close swing state, but it is also closest to Bush's Crawford TX ranch, where he is planning to spend two nights next week.

Going into the final week, Kerry looks strong in Ohio and PA, neither of which has Nader on the ballot. In Minnesota, the maverick former governor Jesse Ventura has endorsed Kerry.
In fact, Kerry looks so strong in virtually all the swing states that some pols have floated the idea that this election could be the reverse of 2000 in that Bush could win the popular vote and Kerry the electoral vote.

The week should start strong with Bill Clinton's first campaign appearance since his heart operation, in Philadelphia on Monday, an authentic news story that should get lots of coverage.

We get the sense that an undercurrent of movement began to flow for Kerry after the third debate, and it began to be perceptible this past week. It's an undercurrent of good crowds, of numbers within some of the more thorough surveys, of good news, of the look of the two campaigns, and of endorsements---not just newspapers, but individuals, including a growing number of Republicans. Plus the Pat Robertson flap last week which suggests to us (and to Kevin Phillips, we noted Friday) that there may be some dissatisfaction within the religious right with Bush.

The Republican efforts to suppress and intimidate voters not withstanding, there's also the sense that a huge turnout is expected on election day which will be very much for Kerry. If there is less that full enthusiasm in Bush's base, it could be decisive.

What will be interesting this week is the final round of polls, beginning Tuesday and ending next weekend. Right now you'd have to say that there appears to be reason that polls will show a movement towards Kerry, and that while such movement may signal a huge victory, a lack of movement either way, or even a slight uptick for Bush, won't be seen as definitive. Because of all those unknown voters out there, and the fact that the polls are more likely to find Bush voters than Kerry voters. So they may be measuring the top of Bush's numbers, but not Kerry's.

It's still possible there will be a final movement towards Bush, but why would there be? There's only a week left for the October Surprise to rear its ugly head. The Sinclair ploy largely didn't work, thanks to Internet activists. The news from Iraq continues to be bad. And several stories are brewing that are unfavorable for Bush, including a CIA report that might be leaked, new evidence about Bush's non-service in the National Guard and his drug use in those years.

While it's not time to take anything for granted, it is a time to feel positive. This will be a week to watch. While working to get out the vote on Tuesday.

The Final Threat

The instances of systematic attempts to take voting rights away from Democrats, specifically minorities and vulnerable populations (like the elderly) in swing states, are growing into the proportions of a national strategy.

Is this how Bush wants to win? The same tainted way he won the last time?

This is so widespread and intense that the news media can't handle it. They still try to balance the GOPers organized attempts involving party officials with isolated instances of minor frauds and infractions by individuals on the Democratic side. Read Paul Krugman's New York Times column for the scoop.


The New York Times > Opinion > Op-Ed Columnist: Voting and Counting

A Fresh Start

Now that the Kerry-Edwards campaign has adopted the slogan A FRESH START FOR AMERICA, we thought we'd reprise our columns on the subject. This is the more recent one:


Now it begins in earnest, and it appears the Karl Rove lies and distraction machine has had its effect. It again becomes possible that the administration that presided over the most disastrous four years since World War II with the most profoundly destructive implications for the next fifty years, may be rewarded with another term.

The Kerry-Edwards campaign is fighting back with a clarity not seen since the primaries. But we return to our belief that the theme that could mean victory is simply FOR A FRESH START.

To energize the base and to win swing voters and inspire non-voters, we need to inspire emotionally while we make sense on the facts. We need to be positive at the same time as we relentlessly expose the damage that Bush has done, that must not be rewarded with four more years.

There is power in words, and these words---A FRESH START-are optimistic at the same time as they imply Bush's failure and the need to repudiate his administration. In themselves they do not attack anyone personally. Whether the implication is "throw the bums out" or a more neutral "time for a change," these three words say it.

Yet these words are primarily oriented towards the future.

They express what this campaign is already saying, especially since the Willy Horton Writ Large GOP convention. They don't concentrate on blame, yet the action required is crystal clear: for A FRESH START, vote for Kerry-Edwards.

If you are convinced this is an effective combination of words to use, it may be up to you to use them---in your letters to the editor, or any other communications you have in support of saving the future by getting Bush out of power. It may have to be a slogan, an idea that percolates up from a few individuals and possibly gets noticed by the campaign. But even if it doesn't, even if it clicks with one voter enough to earn one vote, it will have made an important contribution. Especially in a race which may be extremely close.

And here is what we said this past summer; not only here but in memos to various politicos, postings on the Kerry site and correspondence to move on.org:

Kerry-Edwards: A FRESH START Second Unsolicited Advisory to the Kerry Campaign


Media parrotheads are calling for a soundbite, a slogan, a defining blurb to come out of the Dem convention; without it, they say, Kerry can't ride the media waves to the presidency. Maybe, maybe not. But we do have a very simple image to suggest that could help. And it just might help win the election. It's simply this: A FRESH START. Not just the concept, which is said and implied in many ways now, but the exact words. There are many ways to say it, but most of the formulations have been overused or are too abstract: time for a change, a new day, a new America, etc.

But this is better. Why? Words matter, and these are good words. A FRESH START is fresh, it's more concrete and action-oriented. It has emotional resonance, connotations that are both exciting and warm. Break it down: A: An indefinite article. It doesn't directly blame. It doesn't start an argument immediately by claiming too much (such as "this candidate is THE perfect answer to make everything better," which puts a lot of people off.) FRESH: has good associations, to fresh food, fresh air---something brand new, untainted. Fresh air is bracing, so it's exciting. Fresh bread is warm.

FRESH is POSITIVE, in its literal meaning and its emotional message. But it also distinguishes from something that is not fresh, that's old, that leaves a bad taste in the mouth. Something that's fresh doesn't directly imply a change from something that's stale or decaying, but it is the desired alternative to something stale or decaying. It has associations of health, of flavor, that it will FEEL GOOD. START is an action word. Start your engines! It is exactly paired with FRESH in its music. The literal meaning of A FRESH START has everything to do with now and the future.

FRESH is immediate. START implies action that goes on into the future. But of course it won't work just because the words are good. The words have to be right: they have to convey the right message succinctly and dramatically. And A FRESH START does just that.

All the polls show that the American electorate is clearly heartsick over the Iraq prison scandals and the Bush handling of the Iraq war. They know the reasons given for the war weren't true, and they suspect they were lies. Bush's credibility is in shambles. The public has soured on his economic policies, his leadership, the total bill of goods he sold. They've seen enough of the corruption, the crude rule of the Haliburtons, the political extremism. They are ready to repudiate him and his administration. BUT he is still the president, and Americans are still in harms way in war zones. This presents difficulties for some voters. How can they get rid of Bush without appearing to be one of the haters, or even unpatriotic?

The answer is: A FRESH START. It repudiates the past without laying blame. It honors the tradition: when people in power make serious mistakes, it's time to give the job to someone else. Everybody understands that. It doesn't have to be personal. It just means A FRESH START.

This is a way for making Bush accountable without being negative. As such, it is event-proof. Bush deserves to be replaced for what has already happened on his watch. He doesn't deserve to be rewarded, and he can't be trusted with the job. It does several other things for the Kerry-Edwards ticket specifically. It allows them to be positive, which is especially important for Edwards.

A FRESH START is entirely future-oriented. It expresses a lot about the foreign policy objective of repairing our alliances and relations with other nations, as well as about domestic policies of new approaches to health care, education and the economy, and environmental and energy policies.

In all cases, A FRESH START means new people with new policies. This is especially potent on relations with other countries. Everyone understands that Bush can't repair the relationships he and his people so arrogantly destroyed. It will take somebody new to credibly say, let's forget about the recent past---let's start over. That's just common sense. But perhaps its strongest point is that it communicates new leadership even more than new policies. Republicans will argue about what Kerry supported or didn't support, and they will ask exactly what he will do differently in Iraq, and it will all get contentious and, for many, abstruse and over-complicated.

But you can't argue with the meaning of A FRESH START. It means a new president who is markedly different from the old president, and does not have the baggage of that past.

But of course it works equally well on issues (like health care) that are based on a new policy direction or different approaches. And for those predisposed to want a different direction, and those who want Kerry to bring a different direction, they will read all of that into A FRESH START. A FRESH START allows Kerry to be the candidate of change and hope. A FRESH START appeals to the Democratic base: those who want nothing more than to get rid of Bush. But it can also appeal to independents ready to jump who are troubled, if not appalled. To those who are almost ready to hold Bush accountable for mistakes, regardless of how they feel generally about his policies or his personality.

But the real key is that it can also appeal to OTHER INDEPENDENTS AND EVEN REPUBLICANS who need a nudge to use the secrecy of their ballot to vote for A FRESH START, for somebody new, without the emotional turmoil of admitting they were wrong to back Bush, or without the appearance of being disloyal to their party or ideology or religious congregation.

A FRESH START doesn't require anyone to admit that they fault Bush specifically. They might fault others in his administration. They may not fault anyone---they just want all this bad stuff to go away, and they're afraid that with Bush it could continue. They don't want to see the awful pictures and terrible headlines. They want it all to be over, but they don't want to appear disloyal to a president in wartime. A FRESH START is unthreatening language. It is optimistic, forward-looking, and very American.

A FRESH START works even for those who don't really believe that a change in administration will make much of a difference. But at least it will be a change, a chance that things will be better. Even when people are afraid to criticize, they can be persuaded by the sensible American idea that if things aren't going well, it's time to give somebody else a chance. That A FRESH START is a good idea, is something a great many people can agree on.

A FRESH START is a tag line to be used relentlessly until everyone knows it, until comedians are making jokes about it. But it is also a concept around which the candidate can build positions, and can show his personality. It turns the fact that many Americans are just starting to know Kerry into an advantage---he is new and therefore fresh, and imagery can reinforce this naturally by showing his family, his friends, his background---all new to the public.

When FDR was first elected, Will Rogers commented that if he had simply burned the White House down, the country would have cheered and said, at least he got a fire started. The electorate isn't that desperate yet. But there is a layer of something like desperation, and certainly deep dissatisfaction and disquiet, that is ready to be tapped. How do you do it without forcing anyone to feel guilty? How do you overcome the fear of change? Just a nudge might do it, just three words: A FRESH START.

Finally, we note that A FRESH START FOR AMERICA is not only the banner over the rally crowd or on the front of the lecturn, but Kerry and Edwards both used it in the debates, speaking of a fresh start on Iraq, and recently Kerry has applied it to a fresh start on health care.

Non-Plussed

It comes as no surprise that our society is overspecialized. But when it comes to understanding real life, and making informed decisions on political decisions which will affect many aspects of many lives--our jobs, health and well-being, whether children live or die, how our limited time on earth will be spent---we need more than a single limited purview.

Everyone is talking (everyone says) about Ron Suskind's article in the New York Times Magazine which basically says that Bush doesn't listen to facts, doesn't question or analyze, and often denies reality; instead he is guided by what he sometimes calls faith, sometimes calls instinct, sometimes intuition. Suskind further says that he draws certainty from doing this, and it is this sense of certainty that attract a great many people (apart from those who believe as a matter of fundamentalist faith that Bush was sent by God and so everything he does is divinely ordained.)

But the political pundits can't handle it. It's not in the policy purview. Charlie Rose interviewed Suskind, and often was debating him on the touchy subject of being guided by faith, or a Messanic impulse. He kept saying weren't other presidents guided by faith. He just didn't get that this president substitutes what he thinks is the guidance of faith for any other sort of decision-making process. And the absolutism of the conclusions are stunning. But this is too outside the usual political talk for Charlie to quite comprehend it.

Chris Matthews had the same problem, but with him it was worse, because when he "interviewed" Suskind, he obviously hadn't even read the article (just knew everybody was talking about it.) So he talked more than Suskind, throwing out his prejudices as to why Suskind was wrong. He just couldn't accomodate that kind of information.

Now we think even Suskind didn't go far enough in his analysis, but who could blame him? If he had taken the next logical step and thought about the psychology of this, he wouldn't even get on TV let alone be published in the Times Magazine. No, for that you'll have to go blogging.
Try this on for size:

BLUE VOICE

We aren't sure this is the correct analysis but it's pretty interesting.

A Different October Surprise

Sometimes it starts with just a peep here and there. A small story at the bottom of the page, an item one blog picks up. That's what's happening with the story of the CIA report, completed weeks ago, that "names names" in analyzing preparadness and response on 9-11. Why hasn't it been released? the stories ask. Why is it being held back until after the election? Shouldn't we see it now?

So the solitary cries become a chorus. Meanwhile an unnamed CIA guy makes the CNN ticker with the leak that the report is damaging to Bush. There's a war of unknown ferocity going on between the White House and the CIA. A number of damaging reports have already been leaked. Could this one be far behind?

Would it suddenly appear on the front page of a major newspaper, say ten days from now?
Maybe it's the CIA's October Surprise.

Score One for the Net

Sinclair television's plan to air a 42 minute anti-Kerry commercial disguised as a documentary has run up against the solid wall of the Internet.

Our activist brother discovered the power when he was able to post an alert on the Kerry.com website, having grabbed the company's address and phone numbers from its website, and a list of the TV stations it owned across America from a page posted by the Columbia Journalism Review. Two minutes of googling, five more of blogging, and a front was opened to attack Sinclair with protests, with calls to local stations, and especially calls to their advertisers.

The bigger and more powerful blogs like kos, atrios, marshall's talking points memo, mahablog and others were on the case within hours. Most detailed lists of stations and some with their advertisers appeared. People reading these sites and blogs who lived in the Sinclair cities started calling. Others got involved, including members of Congress and some activists with money.

Advertisers starting pulling out: the number is now up to at least 80. Local stations were weeping, because this is their revenue stream. Law suits started. Sharesholders started to protest. The news director of the Sinclair Washington station came out publicly against the order to show the anti-Kerry ad, and he was fired.

But all of this made Wall Street nervous. Sinclair stock began to tank. Sinclair losts an estimated $100 million in revenue.

Now Sinclair has announced it is not airing this "documentary," but its own news program examining the influence of documentaries, blah blah. No one exactly believes them, so the pressure is still on. But to avoid a lawsuit by Media Matters, they have stated flatly that they won't air it. Meanwhile, the folks who made the award-winning "Going Up River" docu on Kerry, mostly positive, have partnered with one of those money guys, and offered to buy time to show it on all Sinclair stations.

This has happened in the space of about ten days.

Score one for the Internet.

The Surge?


In five of the six electoral vote tallies surveyed by T. Goddard's Political Wire, Kerry is leading. In four of the five, he has more than enough electoral votes for victory.

Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

New state polls show Kerry leading in the battlegrounds of PA, Ohio, Oregon, New Hampshire and--yes!---Florida. Minnesota is tied.

Meanwhile Bush's lead has shrunk to just 3 points in Arkansas (5 in another poll) and another state seems to be in play: North Carolina, where Bush's lead is just 3 points.

Meanwhile, the national head to head polls are trending towards a tighter race, meaning that Kerry is showing gains.

Ups and downs

Reasons for optimism: Zogby poll shows Kerry closing on Bush's recent lead, now tied; battleground states continue to trend towards Kerry; Bush's approval numbers still hover around 50% (in CBS/NYT poll it's at 44%) and no recent president has been re-elected with less than 50% approval, because late deciding voters trend towards the challenger. There is little or no good news for Bush, Kerry did well in the debates and so innoculated himself against charges of flip-flopping. There are untold numbers of new voters and members of various minority groups likely to vote for Kerry; new registrations especially in swing states trend towards Democrats. Kerry's core voters are now strongly committed to voting, and there are thousands of activists committed to getting out that vote.

Reasons for pessimism: Bush is ahead by an average of five points in likely voter polls, despite everything: losing all three debates, the bad news, the horrendous record. Undecideds may not break towards the challenger in what is perceived to be a time of war, when people may feel threatened. GOPers may have successfully suppressed Democratic and minority registration in key states (i.e. vote fraud) enough to almost nullify gains. Karl Rove, the evil genius, may have successfully warped the national consciousness into submission.

The conclusion is that the race is still close and the outcome is still uncertain, two weeks before the election. But what depresses some Kerry advocates---and it does seem that some are sinking back into the September depression---is the belief that the evidence against Bush is so extreme that in a sane country Kerry would be WAY WAY ahead in the polls, and therefore, not only do we face the possibility of an utterly ruinous second Bush term, but his election (or reappointment) would be the final and most terrifying evidence that America is functionally insane.

Endorsements and Polls


Kerry is beating Bush in newspaper endorsements in Florida 22-3. Tomorrow (Monday) early voting begins in Florida. Kerry is ahead in that state in some polls, a touch behind in others.

Newspapers in other battleground states (such as Dayton, Ohio) endorsed Kerry today. The latest Zogby poll shows Kerry with a ten point lead in battleground states.

However, the new CNN/Gallup Poll shows Bush opening an eight point lead among likely voters. This poll is meaningful only in how CNN and other media sheep choose to play it in terms of the emphasis of their coverage. Among registered voters in this poll, the change from last week is insignificant, and the race is still essentially tied.

Because of the varied ways in which these polls measure "likely" voters, and because new voters are by definition not likely ones in these polls, and because more questions are arising about the accuracy of polls especially due to the prevalence of cell phones (many lower income families use only cell phones) which are not accessible to pollsters, expert observers are counselling that the registered voter poll is more likely to be indicative. A poli sci prof that one of the blogs we read quotes (they go by in a blur) counsels further that if Bush is not ahead by four points, he loses.

The internals in these polls continue to look bad for Bush, good for Kerry; the battleground states polls also continue to look good for Kerry. The bad effect of the Bush-ahead polls is to suppress enthusiasm and therefore turnout. Can't let that happen.